Hours before the start of the Club World Cup quarter -finals 2025, the “Opta” sports analysis company revealed the results of 10,000 digital simulations for the tournament’s path, showing significant changes in the chances of coronation after the loud surprises in the round of 16.
Chelsea jumps to the lead
The most prominent beneficiaries of surprises were the English club Chelsea, after the results of the last round toppled prominent candidates such as Manchester City and Inter Milan. Chelsea is facing the Brazilian Palmeiras team in the quarter -finals, and if he qualifies, the winner of the Al -Hilal and Flomeini match will be met, which gives him a theoretical and easier path towards the final.
According to “Opta” estimates, Chelsea’s reaching the final increased to 57.9% after it was only 21.2% before the start of the exclusionary roles. As for his victory in the title, she jumped to 26.8%, to outperform Paris Saint -Germain, whose chances fell to 20.6%.
Half a fiery for Europe
The other side of the draw seems more complicated, as Paris Saint -Germain faces its Bayern Munich counterpart in an early quarter -finals, while the other match is Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. This path represents a double challenge, as it includes four of the most prominent candidates.
The coronation rates for the clubs of this half came as follows:
Real Madrid: 16.9%
Bayern Munich: 14.8%
Paris Saint -Germain: 20.6%
Borussia Dortmund: 7.6%
The crescent surpasses outside the continent
Al-Hilal Saudi Arabia caught the attention after its historical victory over Manchester City 4-3, to rise to the 67th in the world in the “Opta” rating, beating all non-European teams in the tournament. On the other hand, the Brazilian Fluminness came in 158th globally, as the weakest classified among the eight adults.
Poor chances of Brazil
Despite the qualification of Palmeras and Flomeini to the quarter -finals, their numbers in digital simulation did not exceed 5%. Palmeras opportunities in coronation amounted to 3.0%, while Fluminini’s fortunes stopped at 1.5%. However, Opta expected one of them to reach the semi -finals in 23.2% of the models.
Expected scenarios
Expectations indicate that the scenario of confronting Al Hilal and Chelsea in the semi -final is the closest to verification according to data analysis. However, “Opta” stressed that football is not entirely subject to algorithms, and that surprises remain in every moment.
