International Affairs Editor
- An unprecedented bread
- Israel has announced the destruction of 40 % of Iranian missile platforms
- Tel Aviv bombed 1,100 goals inside Iran with the participation of 200 aircraft
- Iran launched more than 400 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones
- 600 dead and 1,300 wounded Iran, including military and nuclear scientists
- 25 Israelis, 800 wounded, and 18,000 reports were killed, with damage to property
- Settlement, calm, escalation and change of the system are the most prominent scenarios of conflict
- The coming days are decisive, you will witness a diplomatic breakthrough or the development of the existing conflict
The military confrontations between Iran and Israel entered its seventh day, with an unprecedented breadth in the scope of the confrontation and a qualitative shift in the nature of mutual strikes; A week after the start of the conflict, Israel continues to launch raids and attacks on several Iranian regions, targeting military sites, missile launch platforms, and several economic and oil sites as well as nuclear facilities, while the Iranian army launched yesterday the sixth stage of the suicide march attack against Israel, and the Revolutionary Guards announced yesterday, starting in a new stage of installed attacks against Israel, to reveal the head of the Israeli intelligence service, to reveal the head of the Israeli intelligence service, Shlumi Bander, about the assassination of 30 Iranian commanders.
From shadow wars for confrontation
On the thirteenth of June 2025, the conflict began with a large -scale Israeli air attack that targeted what the Israelis described as the “Iranian nuclear program” and the missile structure, claiming that this operation is necessary to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, to return Tehran at an unprecedented speed, by launching a barrage of ballistic missiles directly from Iranian territory towards Israeli cities, in a historic precedent.
Israel announced the destruction of about 40% of Iranian ballistic missile launch platforms, and an Israeli military spokesman said that the Israeli Air Force carried out hundreds of flights, during which it bombed more than 1,100 targets inside Iran, since the attacks began last Friday morning, in which nearly 200 different models of various models participated. In addition to targeting leadership and control centers that coordinate group attacks, while an Iranian human rights organization reported the killing of nearly 600 people.
On the other hand, Iran launched more than 400 ballistic missiles, along with at least 1,000 aircraft march towards Israel, while approximately 800 Iranian marches were intercepted before its approaching Israeli airspace, which led to the fall of about 838 injured, in addition to evacuating 5,000 of their homes due to Iran’s missiles, while the number of deaths remains unclear in light of a media blackout imposed by Israel on its numbers, especially humanity.
Operations escalate at a dangerous pace
During the next six days, military operations escalated at a dangerous rate, making heavy losses between civilians and infrastructure of both parties, as Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Arak, military bases, leadership centers in Tehran and other cities. On the other hand, Iran launched the first batch of its ballistic missiles, which hit civilian targets in Bat Yam and Haifa, with death and wounded. In the second and third days «14-15 June», Israel intensified its raids on Tehran and its surroundings, targeting the Iranian missile, oil and gas facilities, and announced the killing of Major General Mohamed Kazemi, head of the Revolutionary Guards intelligence. Iran responded with more intense missile attacks, which destroyed a residential building in Tehran, killed 60 civilians, and missiles on Israeli cities.
On the fourth and fifth days «16-17 June», Israel targeted the Iranian Radio and Television Authority, and announced its control of Iranian airspace after the destruction of airports and missiles. In response, Iran launched what it described as a “largest missile”, including the Fateh-1 sound missiles within the “sincere promise process 3”. Simultaneously, the United States provided logistical support to Israel by sending fuel -providing aircraft and aircraft carrier to the region. On the sixth day (June 18), Israel continued its strikes on missile sites and weapons stores in western Iran, and destroyed 5 military helicopters. On the other hand, Iran launched new missile batches using Fateh-1 missiles, while hundreds of thousands of Israelis resorted to shelters.
Human and material losses
The two parties incurred great losses. On the Iranian side, the Ministry of Health announced the killing of at least 224 people by June 16, 90% of whom are civilians, and the number rose to about 600 dead and more than 1,300 wounded by June 18, including military leaders and nuclear scientists. The Iranian nuclear program was subjected to almost complete paralysis, as all centrifuges operating in Natanz were destroyed or wrapped in “about 15,000 devices”, and two facilities were destroyed to manufacture centrifugal components, and the Arak reactor of the heavy water was bombed. Military and security leadership centers, air bases and missile warehouses were destroyed.
Economically, strikes in fires caused oil and gas installations, the global rise in oil prices, a fuel crisis and a lack of basic foodstuffs, cyber attacks paralyzed banks, payment systems, and almost complete interruption of the Internet. Tens of thousands of civilians were displaced from Tehran. On the Israeli side, about 25 Israelis were killed, and more than 800 were wounded by June 18. Residential neighborhoods were damaged in Tel Aviv and Haifa, and more than 18,000 reports recorded damage to homes, vehicles and property. The cost of direct material damage was estimated at about $ 1.5 billion, and the attacks led to a temporary displacement of about 3,800 Israelis, the closure of schools and universities, and Ben Gurion Airport, the Haifa and Shaklon port were disrupted. Military, the Israeli missile defense systems “Haytz, the Iron Dome”, and a disturbing deficiency appeared in the inventory of the Hitts interception missiles.
The detailed data of the losses shows that civilians are the main victims on both sides, with a high percentage of civilian victims in Iran. Economic damage and infrastructure directly affect the lives of ordinary citizens, which exceeds the usual military losses in previous conflicts. This high human and economic cost of civilians may increase the internal pressure on leaders in both countries to stop the fighting, or on the contrary, may lead to fueling popular anger and escalating demands for revenge, which makes the course of war not predictable.
Regional and international positions
The direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv caused a global diplomatic shock, given the risk of the war of war to a broader regional conflict.- United States: Washington stood strongly alongside Israel, confirming its right to self-defense, and provided indirect assistance in intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump made severe warnings to Iran, but he also alluded to the possibility of reaching an agreement to stop the war, and his administration imposed additional sanctions, and sent military reinforcements to the region, with the option of direct military intervention open, despite the opposition of 60% of Americans to intervene.- Europe and Western countries: Most European capitals called for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic solutions. Germany confirmed its support for Israeli security, but urged to avoid targeting civilians. France played an active diplomatic role, proposing a European initiative to end the war, and criticized the “lack of proportionality” of some Israeli strikes.- Russia and China: they took a cautious stance, called for the stopping of hostilities and the action offered. Russian President Putin proposed a framework of a regional security agreement. China has expressed special concern about the safety of Iranian nuclear establishments.- Arab and Islamic regional states: Qatar and Oman made active mediation efforts, called on Saudi Arabia to control oneself, and offered its influence to the ceasefire. The UAE and Bahrain condemned the attacks, embraced restraint, and Egypt warned against the deterioration of the security of the region, while Türkiye condemned the Israeli strikes and offered to host an Islamic summit. The Arab League condemned the “mutual attacks on civilians”, while the Cooperation Council called for resolving differences by peaceful means, stressing its neutral position.- United Nations and international organizations: the Secretary-General of the United Nations appealed to the two parties “stopping madness”, and the UN Security Council held emergency sessions, and the International Atomic Energy Agency expressed its concern about targeting nuclear facilities, and the International Maritime Organization discussed threats Navigation, the major powers, especially the United States, face a challenge in the balance between the support of “Israel” and the urgent need to contain the conflict. While European countries, Russia and China are trying to resolve the conflict by diplomatic means, but the division of the Security Council limits its effectiveness. This accurate balance may give the two warring parties a space for maneuver and continuing to fight, as there is no uniform and sufficient international pressure to force them to stop an immediate shooting.
Motivates and future scenarios
The accounts differ radically between the two sides, so Israel sees that its attack is preventive to prevent Iran from owning a nuclear weapon, claiming that Tehran has reached the “point of no return” in fertilization, and owned a secret program. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the failure of diplomacy a “60 -day deadline” forced Israel to move. On the other hand, Iran considers the Israeli strike a “left aggression” aimed at thwarting any diplomatic solution. War is also seen as an opportunity to “unify the internal front” and distract attention from economic problems. Analysts offer a number of scenarios:- Conditional calm “negotiating shooting”: This scenario depends on a mutual ceasefire of fire at international pressure, followed by immediate entry into intensive negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and regional security arrangements. This requires concessions from Iran “more striking nuclear restrictions” in exchange for ending Israeli strikes, and perhaps obtaining security guarantees.- Regional escalation: In the event that diplomatic efforts fail, the war may slip into a longer and more bloody confrontation that extends for new fronts by activating Iran’s regional allies “such as Hezbollah, militias in Iraq, Syria and the Houthis.” The direct American intervention, the conflict, will turn into a broader confrontation, to include the risks a nuclear confrontation, an environmental catastrophe, and a global economic crisis due to high oil prices.- Changing the system or leadership: painful Israeli strikes and economic pressures may weaken the grip of the Iranian regime and stimulate internal protests to bring it down. On the other hand, losses and the continuation of the war may lead to questions about the responsibility of the leadership in Israel, which may lead Netanyahu’s opponents to demand its removal.- A limited settlement “neither victorious nor defeated”: Some experts believe that the two parties may reach a mutual military exhaustion that pushes them to accept the cessation of the fighting without clear discount, then freezing the conflict with international guarantees. This solution remains fragile; Because it does not address the roots of the conflict, but rather it is postponed.
The area is a crossroads
Until the moment of preparation of this report, the sounds of explosions and warnings continue in Tehran and Tel Aviv, which confirms the continuation of the conflict, and this war represents the most dangerous direct confrontation in the modern Middle East between two countries with this weight, and civilians pay the largest price, and the next few days will be crucial: either we witness a diplomatic breakthrough that stops the cycle of violence, or the conflict develops in a dangerous direction that makes the region in its entire Hot tin.
