Scientists have cast doubt on the reliability of America’s most celebrated rodent forecaster – whose apparent knack of predicting how long winter will last forms a hallowed tradition in the US.
Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the 1993 film Groundhog Day, attracts thousands of visitors every 2 February to the Pennsylvania town from which he takes his name.
The US state’s tradition of using a large rodent to predict the seasons dates back to the Pennsylvania Dutch belief that if a groundhog left its burrow and saw its shadow, it would scurry back inside and winter would go on for six more weeks.
Professional forecasters have warned that Phil’s prediction on Sunday will probably be way off the mark. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has concluded that only 35% of Phil’s forecasts have proved to be accurate – placing him at a lowly 17th compared with other rodent forecasters.
Staten Island Chuck, a New York-based groundhog, tops the rankings with an impressive 85% accuracy rate on his forecasts.
Phil and his predecessors, also called Phil, have been forecasting since 1887.
According to records dating back to 1887, Phil has predicted winter more than 100 times. Ten years were lost because no records were kept, organisers say.
