Days after he was sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president, retired general Prabowo Subianto, kicked off his tenure with a militaristic boot camp in the hills of Java.
In olive-green army fatigues and combat boots, his new cabinet – from bespectacled technocrats to former officers – marched and stood in formation.
It was a striking look for the world’s third-largest democracy, one that less than two decades ago threw off the shackles of authoritarian rule.
But analysts say the show of discipline and coordination belie what has ensued in the first 100 days of Prabowo’s presidency, with the ex-commander’s leadership described as at times being haphazard, contradictory and lacking clear direction.
“This is one of the most chaotic first 100 days I have seen,” said Yohanes Sulaiman, from General Achmad Yani University in Bandung, “The government seems to be lacking in discipline, with most of the policies half baked.”
Prabowo gained widespread popularity with his promise to provide free meals to almost 90 million school children and pregnant women, winning a landslide election victory in February last year, but a series of u-turns has followed, on everything from pardons to flashpoint topics such as Beijing’s claims on the South China Sea.
A change to a planned VAT policy hours before it came into effect is another example, say analysts, of muddled policymaking under Indonesia’s new leader.
‘A lot of blunders’
Prabowo, the former son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator Suharto, was dismissed from the military in 1998 amid allegations of human rights abuses, for which he has always denied wrongdoing.
In the decades since his military days, the retired general has continued to loom large over Indonesian politics, founding what is now the country’s third-biggest political party and running three times for the presidency.
Propelled by a savvy rebrand that replaced the image of a nationalistic and bellicose general with an avuncular figure with a penchant for dancing and cuddling his cats, Prabowo finally won the presidency in April last year with a resounding 58% of the vote. He was inaugurated on 20 October.
In the sprawling, developing nation of 280 million people, Prabowo’s campaign promise to provide free lunches to almost 90 million school children and pregnant women won him many fans across the archipelago.
In an address to cabinet on 22 January he praised his government’s people-centric approach, after the first phase of free meals program was rolled out. “We have been able to achieve a stable condition, filled with tranquility,” he said, as reported by state news agency, Antara.
A January survey showed the populist policy has been well received, affording him a 80.9% approval rating.
But academics, analysts and foreign policy experts have been more circumspect about his performance in other areas.
Among the most alarming of moves , , was Prabowo’s tacit acknowledgement of China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea, which Indonesia and other nations in south-east Asia, have long rejected.
“It wasn’t just a mishap or a mistake … It was a deliberate policy change,” said political analyst Kevin O’Rourke, of a joint statement signed in China this November. “This was clearly a concession made to the Chinese in exchange for something else.”
“It was a quid pro quo. This was a quid. What’s the quo?” he said, adding that any concession was unlikely to appease China, but rather, “whet their appetites”.
In one of the first flip-flops under Prabowo, Indonesia’s foreign ministry later issued a contradictory statement, saying it did not recognise China’s nine-dash line.
There has, says Lina Alexandra from the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, been “a lot of blunders” in an approach to foreign policy she describes as “scrambling”.
Foreign-educated and a multi-linguist, Prabowo appears at ease on the global stage, embarking on a mini world tour before his presidency had even started.
“Doing a lot of visits is one thing, but if it’s without any direction, that could be quite dangerous and risky, especially amid the tensions that we are facing,” said Alexandra, “And that’s much more intensified under Trump.”
A subsequent decision by non-aligned Indonesia to join Brics, and also skip an Asean foreign ministers’ meeting, has also surprised observers given Indonesia, the largest member of the bloc, normally plays a prominent role.
“The impression is that he wants Indonesia to be more at the centre of the global stage, but it’s still not yet clear about the direction,” said Alexandra.
Another policy reversal came with the much touted plan to hike value-added tax (VAT) by one percentage point to 12%, but hours before it was set to go into effect Prabowo announced that it would apply only to luxury goods and services.
Prabowo said the “gradual VAT hike was designed to avoid significant impacts on inflation, purchasing power, and economic growth,” but analysts say the last-minute backtrack created business and investment uncertainty in south-east Asia’s largest economy.
“It’s just been a very haphazard process because policy has flip flopped back and forth a couple of times,” said O’Rourke, “It’s been inefficient and confusing, and it shows that Prabowo is unwilling to take steps that might agitate the public.”
The reversals are at odds with the image of a decisive general presented in his campaign.
“Ultimately this just reflects Prabowo himself. He’s very changeable and has long been prone to delivering contradictory messages depending on his audience at the moment,” said O’Rourke.
“Prabowo is hoping for quick achievements,” noted Sulaiman, “but it has ended up with him courting a lot of controversy.”
Prabowo’s office was contacted for comment on how he regarded the criticisms of his first 100 days in power but did not respond.
Alexander Arifianto, an Indonesia expert from the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said some missteps could be attributed to having to manage a bloated coalition. “Hence why policy announcements and rollout is often not smooth,” he said.
Prabowo has made other surprising moves too, such as releasing foreign prisoners on death row, including the remaining members of the so-called Bali 9.
The former general also floated pardoning people jailed for corruption, but has since appeared to walk that back.
As analysts critique the new president’s first 100 days, even Prabowo himself has admitted in the past year that democracy is “very messy”.
