As Nigel Farage toured US television studios before the inauguration of President Donald Trump, his face was almost as unavoidable in a quiet Cheshire market town more than 3,000 miles from the White House.
“He’s already got an office here, hasn’t he?” exclaimed Rob Hitchmough, 65, walking his cavalier King Charles spaniels, Oskar and Reyes, along Frodsham Main Street, where Reform UK had its campaign headquarters last year.
Leaflets bearing Farage’s face have appeared on the doormats of thousands of people in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby over the past 12 weeks ahead of a potential byelection showdown between Reform and Labour.
Although a byelection has not yet been officially declared, many believe one will be triggered in a matter of weeks when Mike Amesbury, the sitting MP, is sentenced for assault following a late-night altercation on 26 October last year.
Amesbury, who first became a Labour MP in 2017, was re-elected last year with a majority of 14,696. He is due to be sentenced on 24 February and, if he receives a custodial or suspended sentence, a recall petition will almost certainly follow. If 10% of eligible voters sign the petition, a byelection would be called.
Farage’s party has wasted no time in starting the ground war. Activists have been out on doorsteps for weeks handing out leaflets and collecting valuable canvassing data.
One Reform source said the party was keen to make up for its poor performance in the Blackpool South byelection last May, when Labour started its campaign early and successfully took the seat from the Conservatives.
They know, however, that it will take a colossal effort to overturn Labour’s majority. “We have an outside chance but it’s a massive ask,” said a Reform source. “It’s certainly not there for us to win and it would need a massive, massive, massive swing.”
“I like Nigel Farage, but no,” said Hitchmough, outside the orange-branded taxi rank where Amesbury punched a man to the ground. “There’s just something about them [Reform] – I don’t trust them.”
But for the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, it threatens to be the first damaging election of his premiership. Like many in the mostly white, working-class constituency, Hitchmough is traditionally a Labour voter. Now he is unsure. “I don’t know [who to vote for], to be honest. It was a moment of madness,” he said, of the incident involving the MP nicknamed “slugger” by some in the town.
The constituency is one of 89 where Reform came second behind Labour in last year’s general election. Since then Farage’s party has risen in popularity and is almost level with Labour in some polls.
The result of three nearby council byelections has also given Reform cause to celebrate. Last month, the anti-immigration party won a seat from Labour in St Helens, about 10 miles north of Runcorn, having earlier taken one from the party in Blackpool and another from the Conservatives in a village a few miles north.
The result of a byelection, activists in both camps said, would depend as much on Labour’s ability to get out its vote as the success of any rival. But Starmer faces a huge task.
“I’ve been a Labour voter all my life but they’ve screwed us. Completely screwed us,” said Marie, 68, who was seething about the government’s treatment of pensioners.
Walking her two jack russells, the retired chef said she felt Labour policies had already left her worse off.
She is one of more than 3 million women who will not be compensated for the controversial rise in the state pension age affecting those born in the 1950s. “It’s absolutely disgraceful,” she said, adding that she was considering voting for Reform.
Another local person, who did not want to give his name, said he felt “let down” by Starmer’s party. “I did vote Labour but I don’t know now,” he said. “Not on what they’ve done stopping the winter fuel allowance, putting up taxes and national insurance.”
He said his “trust has gone” in politicians and was considering never voting again. Asked whether he would vote for Reform, he said: “I’d think about it.”
In normal times Labour’s majority would be an unassailable lead for a party only six months into office. But these are not normal times. Britain’s two-party monopoly is in crisis, with both leaking large numbers of votes to smaller rivals.
Lucy Birch, a 27-year-old teacher, said she would vote Labour because of the extra money given to schools, but admitted she was “slightly” put off by Amesbury’s assault.
Her mother, Helen Birch, 54, was one of the 16% of local voters who backed the Conservatives last year. She would consider voting Reform this time: “It depends what’s on offer. I like Nigel [Farage]. Reform or Conservative. But definitely not Labour.”
