Sunday 27/July/2025 – 11:53 AM
The Information and Decision Support Center in the Council of Ministers has highlighted the report issued by the “Fitch” agency, which deals with the prospects for the oil and gas sector in the Middle East and North Africa, in the context of following up the continuous center of the most prominent international reports and studies dealing with issues and issues of importance to the Egyptian affairs, noting that the agency’s expectations confirmed that the Middle East and North Africa region will form one of the main engines for global energy growth growth during energy The next contract, with increased investments in order to exploit the extensive resources in the region.
Ministers Information: Fitch expects a great leap in oil production in the region in the second half of 2025 and 2026
The center quoted Fitch that oil will remain the primary resource, but it will witness an increasing competition from natural gas, especially as governments tend to develop their local resources. It is expected that the demand for gas will grow dramatically in parallel with the supply, while the demand for oil continues to rise, supported by the positive total population and economic factors.
The report pointed to the decline in oil production levels in the Middle East and North Africa region significantly in recent years, as the main productive countries have committed to the agreement to reduce production led by the OPEC+, however, and with the group starting to retract production of 2.2 million barrels per day, the production is expected to witness a great leap during the second half of 2025 and 2026, and the reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be canceled Completely during the second half of the year 2025, which will raise the total supply growth of the group to about 2.5 million barrels per day during the entire year.
However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the OPEC+ strategy evolved in response to market conditions changes. The general trend has become more likely to decline, and this month the agency has reviewed Brent crude expectations for a decrease. The agency has kept its forecast for 2025 unchanged, at an annual average of $ 68 a barrel, but it is now expected an average annual of $ 67 a barrel of 2026, decreasing from $ 71 in previous estimates. If the prices face significant and continuous declines, the group may choose to intervene, either by stopping or backing production increases.
In the long run, the report expected the continued capital investments in growth at a rate of 4.2% annually until 2029, which greatly exceeds the average global growth in this field, and the Gulf states will be at the forefront of this expansion, by adding 3.74 million barrels per day during the period of expectations extending for ten years to 2034, followed by non -Gulf countries and North Africa. Saudi Arabia will lead regional growth with a production increase of 1.71 million barrels per day, followed by the UAE, which will raise its production by 1.31 million barrels, while Qatar and Kuwait will record moderate increases.
The report indicated that Iran and Iraq dominate oil production in the Middle East outside the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In Iraq, production is expected to increase by 1.43 million barrels, supported by huge investments, most notably from the British company “B”.
On the contrary, the future of Iran remains uncertain due to geopolitical turmoil, American bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and the risk of returning to conflict, despite initial expectations of an increase of 1 million barrels. In North Africa, Libya alone records a remarkable growth in production despite the complex political conditions, while Algeria faces declines resulting from the increasing decline in mature fields and excessive dependence on the state -owned Sonatrach.
Although recent reforms and incentives for new projects may improve future prospects, the risks are still ongoing.
The report pointed out that the demand for refined fuel in the region will continue to grow at strong rates, as it is expected that the consumption of refined oil products in the region will increase by 2.44 million barrels per day during the next ten years, to 11.94 million barrels per day by 2034.
This increase supports demographic and economic factors, with a greater concentration of consumption in Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are the largest in terms of the local market.
On the level of refineries, the report indicated that the region added great capabilities during the past decade, but the future growth will be limited to only 170 thousand barrels between 2025 and 2026, without expansion after that. The current investment is concentrated in updating existing refineries, through projects to improve fuel quality and raise operational efficiency, with an expected increase in the rates of use, and the Gulf states record the highest rates of use, while Libya and Yemen remain in the lowest ranks.
The report explained that natural gas is a strategic priority for the region, with expectations for production by 202 billion cubic meters until 2034.
The Gulf states lead this growth, especially Saudi Arabia, which has invested 110 billion dollars to develop the Jafoura field, and the UAE, which seeks to enhance their production of unconventional gas.
Iran remains a major product despite the challenges of financing and sanctions, while Iraq seeks to exploit burning gas and develop its resources, and to launch promising projects with the support of international companies.
