Thursday 26/June/2025 – 12:20 pm
The Information and Decision Support Center in the Council of Ministers affirmed its continued keenness to follow up, monitor and analyze everything that is included in the centers of thought and international institutions and regional and global news agencies regarding their consumption of the repercussions of events in the Middle East region against the background of recent tensions, with the study of the most prominent directions, influences and opinions that deal with the Egyptian affairs or fall within the scope of its interest, whether in its analyzes of political or economic affairs related to the events that The region is witnessing.
The repercussions of events in the Middle East region against the backdrop of recent tensions
In this context, the Information Center reviewed the most prominent reports that dealt with the conditions of the global oil market in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, as global oil prices witnessed a remarkable decrease with the beginning of Tuesday’s trading on Tuesday, June 24, 2025, which calmed down from geopolitical concerns that threaten the stability of energy markets.
According to Reuters, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell at the beginning of trading on Tuesday, June 24, 2025 by 5.5%, to trade near the level of $ 64.76 a barrel. Brent crude futures decreased by 5.3% to about $ 67.66 a barrel, its lowest level since June 11, 2025, before the start of Israeli strikes on Iran.
This decline came after a wave of gains in the markets, as the price of Brent crude rose to $ 81 a barrel on Sunday, June 22, after American air strikes targeting major nuclear facilities in Iran, according to Fitch.
Then oil prices later returned again, but slightly, as Reuters reported that Brent crude futures rose on Wednesday 25 June to record $ 67.77 a barrel by 10:50 am Greenwich time, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $ 64.97 a barrel.
The significant decline in oil prices came after a sudden statement by US President Donald Trump through social media platforms, in which he announced a “full agreement” between Israel and Iran for the ceasefire, stressing that “everything is going as it should”, praising what he described as the ability of the two parties to endure and wisdom to end what he called the “12 -day war”.
It was remarkable that the US President’s statement on the Iranian missile attacks on the base of many American in Qatar, as he described the Iranian response as “expected”, and thanked Iran for what he called “early notification”, which helped avoid human losses. This comment, in turn, contributed to the reassurance of the markets and the calm of tensions.
The current breakthrough came after weeks of escalating tension, which reached its climax with Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz – the vital artery for the transportation of oil. According to Fitch’s estimates, closing the strait would have raised oil prices to levels between 100 and 120 dollars a barrel, which would have led to a rise in global inflation between 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points, and reduced global growth by at least 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, indicators that lead to the so -called “light stagnation”.
The developments would, in turn, affect global monetary policy, as central banks are expected to slow down the plans for reducing interest rates amid expectations of continued inflationary pressures.
It is noteworthy that before the announcement of the ceasefire, the Goldman Sachs Group had raised its expectations on oil prices, noting that Brent crude may include a geopolitical risk bonus of about $ 12 a barrel, as a result of the increasing possibility of disturbances in supplies, after high tension in the region. The markets estimated a possibility of 52% to close the Strait of Hormuz during the year 2025, compared to only 30% on Friday, June 20, 2025.
According to Standard & Poor’s, during the “12 -day war”, mutual raids targeted vital oil and gas facilities. The “Southern Pars” field in Iran – the largest globally – was exposed to a fire that stopped producing 12 million cubic meters per day, and the “Fajr Gyt” facility, which treats 125 million cubic meters per day of gas.
Despite the current calm, the energy markets still feel the repercussions of the recent conflict. Although the announcement of the ceasefire reduced the pressure on oil prices, the fragility of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East keeps the risks, which drives analysts to follow the developments closely, amid questions about the extent of the sustainability of this calm, and whether it is sufficient to dispel the risk allowance that the markets have priced on for weeks.
