After the recent escalation wave between Israel and Iran, the regional scene is still under the surface, governed by accurate equations and deferred conflicts. The missile attacks recently exchanged by the two parties were not merely a review of the force, but rather a message that exceeds the direct engagement square to the depth of international balances.
Here are urgent questions, as has the administration of US President Donald Trump succeeded in containing an escalation and imposing a quieter rhythm on the region?! Can Washington, under its current leadership, can push Iran again towards the negotiating table without excessive the strategic pressure papers that it has accumulated in recent years?!
Then, what is the expected role of the Arab Gulf states in this context that rejoiced between a fragile ladder and a deferred war?! Without forgetting that Trump agreed to what Israel did, and if he initially alluded to his shy rejection, in a currently contradictory scene, between a supporter of the war to stop it!
The direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, despite its seriousness, seemed carefully studied. Both parties avoid catastrophic or non -containable strikes. This means that despite the calm, the region will remain subject to sudden fluctuations and excessive sensitivity, as one mistake may ignite a wider confrontation that is difficult to contain.
The bet on the return of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file is still standing, especially after Trump has proven to have an approach based on open deals, which enables him to combine pressure and negotiation. Despite his sharp accent towards Tehran, it seems that he prefers to achieve a new negotiating achievement that he is marketing internally and externally as a diplomatic and strategic victory.
Iran, for its part, realizes that returning to the negotiating table has become an economic and political necessity, but it will not accept this from a site of weakness, and will seek to collect parallel gains at the regional and international levels. Also, the Arab Gulf states are not far from the equation; The tension that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, targeting energy infrastructure, and political and economic repercussions of any widespread conflict, all directly affect the security of the Gulf. Thus, the Gulf position continues to move towards stability support, and adopt balanced political solutions.
If the endowment continues, and Trump’s American efforts to persuade Iran to return to negotiations succeed, then the region may enter the stage of a “cold balance”, in which partial and incomplete understandings are drawn, but it is sufficient to postpone the explosion. This situation will impose a new regional security arrangement, which takes into account the security of the biological Gulf, and includes energy files, navigation and military balances.
What is going on above the table is only the apparent part of a sophisticated scene that is managed behind the scenes, where alliances are built and understandings are held. It is proven here that the Arab Gulf is also an active and influential party in the equation of security and stability.
What the region needs is not only caution and anticipation, but strategic initiatives and studied stances that preserve interests and contribute to calming the increasing congestion, our people want to live in peace without serious repercussions caused by parties that are disputed in matters that we have no matter.
