“The Middle East”
Until recently, the strongest man in Pakistan was preferred to stay behind the scenes. He strongly controls his public appearance, and is limited in his statements to pre -prepared speeches during military occasions.
But after the bloody terrorist attack about two weeks ago in the Indian -controlled part of Kashmir, the Commander of the Pakistani army, General Assem Mounir, became at the center of increasing tension between Pakistan and India.
As the pressure in India escalated to respond strongly to the attack, which killed more than twenty Hindu tourists near the town of Bahmam, Munir began determining the tone of the Pakistani position with his sharp speech.
Last Thursday, during a military maneuver, Mounir stood over a tank addressing the forces, saying: “There is no room for ambiguity. Any military adventure on the part of India will be met with a rapid, decisive and escalating response, ”referring to Pakistan’s pledge to respond to any Indian attack, equal to or outperforming it.
Munir’s comments in India and Pakistan were interpreted as an attempt to show strength and gain popular support, especially in light of Pakistan’s suffering from political divisions and economic crises that led to the erosion of the traditional loyalty of the military establishment that has always played a hidden role in directing domestic policy.
But Munir’s reaction seems deeper than just political accounts. Analysts describe him as a militant towards India, and that his positions have been formed through his leadership of the two most important two military informatives in Pakistan, and it is his belief that the ongoing conflict with India is a religious nature in its essence.
Many in India cited statements by Mounir six days before the terrorist attack, as he said in front of a Pakistani community in Islamabad that Kashmir – which is divided between India and Pakistan, and demanded by the entire parties – is the “lifeblood” of Pakistan.
This phrase is a firm part of the Pakistani national discourse, as it reflects the strategic and symbolic importance of Kashmir in the national identity. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs described this permit as inclusive, confirming that Kashmir is an “integral part” of India.
Whether the current crisis escalates or calmed down, this will be greatly dependent on international diplomacy, along with internal political dynamics.
The United States and the United Nations have called on India and Pakistan, two countries with nuclear weapons, to work to calm. On Friday, Pakistan’s permanent actor, Assem Ahmed, stated that Pakistani officials discussed tensions with their Chinese counterparts. China is an ally of Pakistan and has economic interests there.
But diplomacy may not be sufficient. The strong Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, promised that India would follow “all terrorists and supporters to the far reaches of the earth.”
In the wake of attacks on the Indian security forces in Kashmir in 2016 and 2019, India responded by beating what it said was terrorist camps inside Pakistan. This time, and with the killing of 26 people in a tourist site – the most violent attack of its kind in the region – Indian writer and journalist Aditya Sinha said that “a cross -border air strike on assumed camps will not satisfy blood thirst for the far -right supporters” in India.
For his part, Munir spoke after a Bahama attack in explicit ideological phrases that suggest that he does not believe in the possibility of a permanent peace with India.
On April 26, Mounir addressed the students of the Pakistani Military Academy at a graduation ceremony, citing the “theory of the two states” – the intellectual framework on which Pakistan was founded in 1947, which is assumed that Hindus and Muslims are two separate nations that associate separate homelands.
This theory has been the cornerstone of the national identity and the Pakistani foreign policy. In the past, Pakistani generals used this ideological discourse in times of tension with India and reduced it when a diplomatic tone prevailed.
But Munir’s revival of this theory and its repetition was made by many in India as a major shift in the Pakistani position towards India.
His photography was Kashmir as the “Life Artic” of Pakistan, a special impact in India. In the same speech, Munir said: “We will not abandon our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle against the Indian occupation.”
Shekhar Gobta, editor -in -chief of the Indian e -newspaper “Theprint”, said that the timing and escalation of these statements makes it difficult for India to ignore it.
Pakistani officials have rejected any link between Munir’s statements and the attack in Kashmir. Asim Ahmed, the Pakistani permanent representative at the United Nations, said that India’s allegations of a Pakistani connection are baseless, and that the “root of instability” in South Asia remains the unlimited conflict over Kashmir.
Kashmir … wars and rebellions
The Kashmir region has been a center for Indian-Pakistani competition since the division of British India in 1947, which resulted in the establishment of the two countries. Kashmir has witnessed wars, rebellions and a long military deployment, which made it one of the most flammable areas in the world.
This current confrontation is not the first regional crisis that Munir deals with. In 2019, when a suicide bombing in Kashmir in India caused air strikes and temporary military escalation, Munir was the leadership of the Pakistani Intelligence Agency, the Joint Intelligence Directorate (ISI). However, his mandate ended a few months after the then Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan later opposed Munir’s promotion to the position of commander of the army, and their relationship remained tense. After Khan’s relationship with the military leadership worsened, he was overthrown in April 2022, and Munir took the leadership of the army seven months. Khan, who is still very popular (between his supporters), has spent two years in prison so far.
Munir is keen to control his general image, and avoid spontaneous statements. His speeches are characterized by strength and clarity, and often include religious signals.
Hussein Haqqani, the former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, said that Mounir is “indulged in religiosity”, and that this is reflected in his view of relations with India. He added, “At best, he may seek to manage tension – and achieve the largest possible political points in the meantime.”
With this, Munir appears to be an extension of the increasing religious orientation within the Pakistani armed forces, a path that General Mohamed Diaa Al -Haq began in the eighties, in coordination with the United States during the period of support of the Taliban to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
Munir’s leadership period has witnessed an increase in the army’s control of politics and society in Pakistan, amid charges of tightening the screws on the opposition.
“He seems to be preferred to control that he is loved,” Haqqani said. He added, “This is his approach to internal politics, and it seems that his approach will be in dealing with India as well.”
It turned out that the army began to take a stronger role in the relationship with India, as it worked to establish institutional control over any future negotiations by appointing the head of the intelligence service as “National Security Adviser”, a role that was traditionally occupied by retired or civilian generals.
So far, diplomatic relations between the two countries are still frozen. And hostile public messages, instead of quiet diplomacy, have become the main means of communication. In a climate like this, the risk of miscalculation increases significantly.
Zahid Hussein, a political and security analyst in Islamabad, said that Pakistan will be forced to respond if India launched military strikes.
He added: «The question is whether Mr. Modi will choose to stop there. Even limited Indian strikes can escalate to a broader struggle. ”
