Al -Jazeera Capital has kept its recommendation to the Saudi Arabian oil arrow (Aramco) to “increasing the centers” and means continuing to buy, and set the target share price at 29.6 riyals.
This came in conjunction with the emergence of new and possible opportunities arising from global commercial conflicts, and this puts the company in a good position to take advantage of these changes.
Al -Jazeera Capital shed light on the company’s ability, which is the Saudi oil and petrochemical giant to exploit the current conditions facing the markets to constitute a short -term opportunity for Saudi oil, and more economic sanctions against the most important oil exporters such as Russia, Iran and Venzuela may increase the demand for Saudi oil.
The defect in supply chains due to the trade war between the United States and China can create an opportunity to increase Asia’s dependence on Saudi oil.
Aramco’s strong position continues to enhance growth with the support of major strategic factors, which includes the gradual decline in OPEC production discounts and its allies and raising gas production, especially in the first and second stages of the Jafoura project and increasing capabilities in the refining and marketing sector.
Al -Jazeera Capital pointed to the new economic challenges and the weak basics of oil markets, and the possibility of exposure to pressure on revenues in the short term due to the difficulty of the global growth environment represented in low oil prices and commercial tensions in the absence of a significant recovery of demand for the products of the refining sector.
As well as pressure on the company’s revenues during the current year 2025, a possible decrease of 3.5% to 1.74 trillion Saudi riyals, for reasons related to the decrease in oil prices, as it is expected to decrease by 12% from the previous year, with the stability of the demand for the products of the refining sector.
The profit distributions may decrease for the year 2025 to 1.32 Saudi riyals per share in the current year and to 1.34 Saudi riyals per share in 2026 due to the low free cash flow.
Al -Jazeera Capital expects Aramco’s revenues to gradually recover to 2.05 trillion Saudi riyals in the year 2029, or what represents growth during the period 2024 – 2029 at an annual rate of 2.7%.
It is also more likely that the margins of both operation and Ebitda will improve by 2029 to 46.7% and 52.6%, respectively, with support from the return of oil basics to normal in the long run with the improvement of production efficiency. Also, Al -Jazeera Capital expects a net profit growth during the period of expectations at an annual rate of 4.1%, with the widening net profit margin from 21.9% in 2024 to 23.5% in 2029, which confirms the strength of Aramco’s essentials in the long run despite the current fluctuations.
The stock was estimated at the expected profitability of the current year 2025 by 16.1 times, and a repeated book value of the current year for the current year at 4.1 times.
