In a remarkable development that may change the features of the security scene in Iraq and the region, a number of Iran -backed armed factions have expressed their willingness to disarm, in order to avoid a direct military escalation with the administration of US President Donald Trump. The move came in response to the strong American warnings of Baghdad, stating that the factions may be targeted with air strikes unless they are dismantled.
Advanced talks between government and faction leaders
Field politicians and field leaders reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shi’a Al -Sudani is in “very advanced” talks with a number of faction leaders on the mechanism of disarmament. According to Ezzat Al -Shabandar, the prominent Shiite politician, the factions do not show hardening in their position, but rather are fully aware of the size of American threats, and prefer to calm the confrontation.
The factions avoid Iraq escalation
Leaders of prominent factions such as “Hezbollah Brigades, Al -Nujaba Movement, the Sayyid Al -Shuhada Brigades, and Ansar Allah loyal” said that they do not want to escalate with the Trump administration, and that they obtained a “green light” from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to take what they see as appropriate to protect their interests and avoid a direct confrontation with the United States or Israel.
One of the leaders of the Hezbollah Brigades commented, “Trump is ready to take the war to worse levels, and we know that well, and we want to avoid such a scenario.”
Partial withdrawal and tight security measures
Since mid -January, some factions have already begun to evacuate their headquarters in major cities such as Mosul and Anbar, and to reduce their presence for fear of possible American air strikes. He also strengthened the leaders of the factions of their security measures, so they changed their residence headquarters and their phones and their vehicles repeatedly to avoid monitoring and targeting.
The role of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
According to the sources, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the main supporter of these factions, did not mind the step, but rather encouraged them implicitly in order to preserve the regional balance and prevent the collapse of the remaining “Iranian resistance axis”, which has faced severe pressure since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023.
The axis of resistance is in a weak position
Iran is living in a stage of regional decline after a series of strikes that affected its allies in the region. Hamas is under continuous Israeli attacks, and Hezbollah in Lebanon is facing escalating military pressure, while the United States has targeted Houthi sites in Yemen. These developments come in light of the decline in the influence of the Syrian regime, one of the former major allies of Tehran, which enhances the fragility of the resistance axis.
The possibility of integrating the factions or converting them into political parties
One of the options on the discussion table, according to sources close to the negotiations, is to integrate the elements of the armed factions into the official security forces, or turn them into political parties operating under the umbrella of the Iraqi political system. However, the implementation of this scenario is still facing challenges related to trust, coordination and application mechanism.
American position: There is no loyalty to Iran
The US State Department stressed in a statement that these factions should be subject to the Commander -in -Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, not Iran. A US official, who preferred not to be named, said that there were previous experiences in which the attacks stopped for a short period as a result of the American pressure, but he questioned the extent of the factions’ commitment to long -term disarmament.
Conclusion: Iraq is between the pressure of the outside and the accounts of the interior
Today, the Iraqi government finds itself in front of a complex equation; It seeks to maintain a balance between its relations with the United States and Iran, and at the same time it wants to avoid a bloody struggle for its territory. Although the decision to disarm is not yet decided, the mere involvement of the factions in a dialogue of this kind is a precedent, and it may pave the way for the reconstruction of the security and political scene in Iraq and the entire region.
