Today, the world is witnessing a feverish race towards developing artificial public intelligence (AGI), which is the finest form of artificial intelligence capable of thinking and performing human tasks at a similar level. As we enter April 2025; Expenses began to crystallize more clearly about the date of achieving this detailed achievement, amid a state of anticipation, corresponding to widespread controversy over challenges and risks.
Dimis Hasis, Nobel Prize and CEO of Google Depp Mind, believes that AGI may see the light during the five years to the next ten years, that is, between 2030 and 2035, after he expected earlier arrival in 2028-2030. While Sam Altman, CEO of Openai, shows more optimism, indicating the possibility of his appearance this year with the involvement of AI Agents in the labor market. Dario Amani, CEO of “Anthropic”; The possibility of AGI is estimated at 70 to 80% by 2026 or 2027. Other voices, such as Elon Musk, go to 2026, while a previous poll conducted in 2023 indicated between artificial intelligence researchers to 2040; These varying estimates reveal the extent of mystery and the speculation of this feverish race.
On the ground, artificial intelligence techniques made remarkable progress. The OPENAI model recorded 88% in a standard test of general thinking, compared to only 32% of the previous model. Companies such as “Google Deep Mind” and “Deep Seck” are also seeking to develop the capabilities of models to solve problems systematically; Away from identifying patterns. However, access to AGI requires deeper capabilities; The most prominent of which is the innate understanding of humanitarianism and uncyled social rules. The current models are still stumbling in simple human tasks, and the O4-MINI model shows an error rate of 48% in providing wrong or fabricated answers. Also, some experts warn against the approaching depletion of high -quality data for training, and they are questioning the ability to rely on increasing the computer force alone to achieve this goal.
The race towards AGI is not limited to being a technical challenge; Rather, it extends to become a yard for geopolitical and moral competition. The United States and China are running a racing racing; Washington was recently evident in the export of NVIDIA, which could cost the latter approximately $ 5.5 billion. These restrictions have been targeted by slowing Chinese progress; Rather, Washington is considering imposing sanctions on the Chinese company “Deepseek” to restrict its access to American technology. Although this conflict may accelerate the pace of progress, it threatens to reduce interest in safety standards. On the other hand, moral fears are increasing, especially with the prosecution of media institutions for the “Openai” and “Microsoft” company because of the latter’s use of the articles of these institutions in training artificial intelligence; Amid questions about intellectual property. Companies like Wayfair have already started replacing employees with artificial intelligence systems by canceling 340 technical jobs; Which warns of major shifts in the labor market.
And between these aspirations and fears; The issue of timing remains unlimited, as estimates range from the current year and 2040. If AGI promises are achieved, its effect may extend to vital areas such as health care, and perhaps treat incurable diseases during a decade, as Hasbis is expected. But on the other hand, the risks of this transformation are huge, starting from accelerating the competition at the expense of safety, to the loss of millions of jobs. Accordingly, the balance between opportunities and threats represents the most important challenge in light of this race that may determine the future of humanity, and redefine the relationship of man with technology forever.
