The British newspaper Times published a report in which it said that the results of the Riyadh meeting tomorrow, Monday, to discuss the ceasefire in Ukraine, will depend on the readiness of the two sides to make concessions, but their positions will become more clear during this meeting.
In his report, British journalist Mark Urban defined 5 major obstacles that he said may determine the success or failure of negotiations:
First- Details of the ceasefire
The main goal of the conversations is to clarify sites, such as power stations and oil warehouses, which will be prohibited from long -range strikes.
Negotiations will also address Russia’s desire to protect its fleet in the Black Sea and its energy infrastructure, as well as Ukraine’s demands to protect wider, including preventing Russia from resuming offensive operations.
Second- NATO and security guarantees
Ukraine insists on strong security guarantees from its Western allies, including the possibility of creating military training rules in Ukraine, while Russia refuses to deploy Western forces. Both sides will have to deal with sensitive security issues to ensure Ukraine’s defense while addressing Russia’s concerns.
Third- waiver of lands
Ukraine refuses to recognize Russia’s control over 20% of its occupied territory, which may include a possible settlement to recognize the current confrontation lines as actual borders, with the failure to set the occupied lands yet. However, this warns of repeating previous failed agreements, and Ukraine is still cautious about Russia’s long regional ambitions.
Fourth- The size of the Ukraine Army and Western weapons
Russia calls for reducing the size of the Ukrainian army and stopping the shipments of Western weapons, however, Ukraine’s future security depends on a strong and updated army, and any restrictions can be considered an indication of Russia’s planning for future invasions, and Ukraine and European leaders are likely to reject these demands.
Fifth- Russia’s long-term intentions
While Russia is seeking a short -term truce to recover from the war, Ukraine and its allies are concerned about Russia’s long -term goal of re -absorbing Ukraine in its circle of influence. The main question is whether the economic and military losses incurred by Russia will force it to reduce its position on the independence and security of Ukraine.
Ultimately, negotiations depend on whether Russia is ready to accept the sovereignty and security of Ukraine while making concessions, especially in connection with military size and regional peace, or whether it will continue its expansionist ambitions.
