The sight of Donald Trump signing a flurry of executive orders with his black sharpie in front of the Maga faithful after his inauguration inspired envy and concern in equal measure inside the UK government.
Cabinet ministers have been impressed by the new US president “cracking on” with bold – and often controversial – election promises. “We could do with a bit more of that here,” one told the Guardian.
Yet the flood of announcements over Trump’s first week in power and the potential for the UK to be caught up in the global diplomatic and economic maelstrom – or worse still, a direct target of it – has also caused anxiety.
So the newly inaugurated president’s first public utterance about Keir Starmer since re-entering the White House – that the prime minister had “done a very good job” and they “get along well” despite their divergent political views – was met with some relief inside Downing Street.
“Of course there are lots of unknowns but so far things have played out as we’d expected,” said one senior No 10 figure. “We’ll be approaching it all with calmness. We’ll focus on the issues which we have in front of us rather than being freaked out by it all ahead of time”.
Some in government cite Trump’s unpredictability on the global stage as a strength. Others believe it undermines the resolve of his allies. There are big opportunities ahead on the economy and defence in particular, but they are fraught with risk. So Labour has been doing its homework.
In May last year David Lammy visited Washington DC for the sixth time since becoming shadow foreign secretary, meeting both campaign teams. Impressed by the professionalism and focus of the Trump campaign, he wrote to Starmer on his return to the UK. At the top of the page were the words: “The Democrats are in trouble.”
Since then, Labour has been preparing for a Trump White House, with personal relationships at the heart of Starmer’s approach. In September the politicians dined at Trump Tower, where the host dimmed the lights so the prime minister could enjoy the Manhattan skyline.
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, travelled to the US for talks with the incoming administration in December. Some of his No 10 team have sought advice from Tory predecessors who were there last time around. Starmer plans to visit the White House himself next month.
The government is hoping to emulate the pragmatic approach of late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who overcame years of hostility from the US president towards Japan to form a strong personal relationship, often over rounds of golf, during his first term.
“We’re not suggesting that Keir takes up golf but rather than he’ll try to both have an arm around Trump’s shoulder while also being very clear about our national interest and how both countries can profit from working together,” a senior aide said.
Yet some in diplomatic circles warn that Trump remains annoyed about Lammy’s past criticism and Labour staffers campaigning for the Democrats, and suggested the government should “visibly kiss the ring”.
One added: “They need to do something to make Trump look up and say ‘the Brits are trying really hard’.” Others, however, cautioned this approach could lose Trump’s respect.
Strategically, the government believes it can work with the new US administration on economic growth and security. “Obviously we’re from a different political tradition but there’s a lot we’ve got in common in terms of objectives,” an aide said.
So far it is unclear whether the US will impose tariffs of up to 10% on the UK, which could weaken growth and push up prices. But the UK runs a trade deficit with the US, potentially making it less of a target. “We’re not on the naughty step,” one minister said. They have been scenario-planning even so.
Trump is expected to push for a trade deal. But ministers talk down the prospects of a “full fat” deal, not least because of public concern over chlorine-washed chicken or opening up the NHS to US pharma giants. Instead, they’re aiming for sectoral deals in areas such as science and technology.
They know the US will want something in return, and this could include assurances around the UK’s trading relationship with China or the European Union. Ministers, however, believe they should keep their options open.
They acknowledge there is a “rocky time ahead” on global issues with Trump in the White House, with the Middle East a particular flashpoint, but believe they can “do business” with his secretary of state, Marco Rubio.
Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at LSE, said: “Trump is going to need the UK more than he thinks. The UK government should play for time and try to broaden the discussion to link trade matters with security matters.
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“If Trump wants to get a deal on Ukraine at the end of the day there is going to be a peacekeeping force on the ground, a steady supply of equipment to Kyiv. He’s going to need the UK for this because he’ll have too much trouble within his own caucus in the US.”
Starmer has not ruled out the possibility of British troops joining a peacekeeping force – and has committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence as Trump pushes Nato members to do more. But while the UK’s strategic defence review is being rewritten, Treasury officials have a tough task finding more cash.
Peter Mandelson, the incoming UK ambassador to Washington, will play a key role in transatlantic relations. His appointment has been far from smooth, with one senior diplomat suggesting Trump had requested Karen Pierce, his predecessor, stay on.
But government sources blame speculation that his post could be blocked on “mischief-making” by the Labour peer’s enemies on the right, and his former business links with China causing alarm in the hawkish administration.
A senior UK minister said they would be “very surprised” if the appointment, welcomed even by some Tories due to his political skills and grasp of trade policy, does not proceed. One official pointed out Mandelson was not Labour’s envoy to DC, but that of the King.
Much has been made of Trump’s sentimental attachment to the UK, in particular to the royal family and Scotland, where his mother was from. Offering another state visit, a decision formally made by the palace, is another tool in the UK’s diplomatic armoury.
One government official said that, despite deep differences of opinion over climate change with King Charles, Trump has been “very complimentary” about him in calls to Starmer.
“It’s certainly true that he’s an Anglophile and his affection for the royal family is real. Given the change in government and sovereign and the break between the president’s two terms, then consideration of a state visit does seem appropriate,” a No 10 figure said.
However, those who have dealt with Trump in the past warn against overstating the role his affection for the UK could play. “The idea of dangling a state visit could come across as very patronising to the guy who has the whole world wanting to meet him,” said a former minister.
Trubowitz added that, while Trump enjoyed pomp and ceremony, it should be the “cherry on top” of the relationship, rather than designed to sway the famously transactional president.
Many other challenges lie ahead, with some ministers fearing that Trump’s hard-right cultural values, especially towards migration, could have a ripple effect in the UK. There are also stark points of difference on issues including climate change.
But Downing Street says Starmer intends to stand firm on the UK national interest. “We’ll be sticking to our position,” a source said. “We’re not going to be changing policy just because the White House wants us to.”
