Waiting for Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday was like watching a tsunami gather force. Everyone could see the threat approaching. But its scale was still shocking as it hit land, and what damage it wreaks will ultimately take months and years to determine.
The deluge is intentional. For supporters, there is a sense of unleashed macho, almost messianic energy – setting the US on a path to national destiny which might take in Greenland, Panama and ultimately Mars. This time Mr Trump has an electoral mandate, a compliant team with a ready agenda, the obsequiousness of billionaires who command the attention economy, and a compliant supreme court which has already granted the president extraordinary power. He aspires to the rule of a monarch. The flood of executive orders, pardons and pronouncements is intended to overwhelm and intimidate, but also to disorientate opponents.
Where should they look first? To his blanket pardon to those involved in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, including those who assaulted police officers, far beyond what he had said he would do – placing violent extremists beyond the reach of the law? To his attack upon birthright citizenship, and crackdown upon immigration more generally? The withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the World Health Organization? That’s without even wondering what to make of his milder tone towards China, and his somewhat tougher one towards Vladimir Putin.
The most glaring instances may not be the most important ones; Mr Trump’s signature achievement in his first term was arguably his appointment of those supreme court judges, paving the way for the overturning of Roe v Wade. His arbitrary reclassification of thousands of federal employees as political hires, making them easier to fire if insufficiently loyal, has attracted less attention than less substantive pronouncements.
But nor are the most plausible plans necessarily the most critical. He may not be able to enact many of his proposals for an immigration crackdown. But simply announcing them emboldens anti-immigrant sentiment among his supporters and shifts the broader sense of what is politically acceptable or feasible. A federal judge has already blocked his curtailment of automatic birthright citizenship as “blatantly unconstitutional”. But some experts believe the obstacles could be overcome. And for Mr Trump, challenging the constitution head-on may be not just an effect, but the very point.
Set against this, issuing a flurry of executive orders is far easier than passing the legislation needed for other changes. The constitution has, for more than seven decades, limited a president to two terms. Second-time presidents can become lame ducks after a couple of years, as aspirants jockey to replace them. The gravitational force of power will likely hold most of his acolytes close to him. But they are mostly men of giant egos, used to having their own way, and there are already some fissures between them; Mr Trump enjoys playing backers off against each other. Trump voters may be alienated if tariffs lead to higher prices for them. Bullying allies may prove costlier than he expects in the longer run.
At home, the lack of protesters on the streets should not be mistaken for acquiescence. Nor should the downcast mood be taken for despair. Determining where to look, and what to prioritise, is extraordinarily hard in this shifting landscape. But there will be legal, political and social opportunities: “You have to have your head up, and look for those openings,” urged Timothy Snyder, the historian and author of On Tyranny. Even small achievements, especially when made in collaboration with others, can remind people what is possible in the face of what may appear to be insurmountable forces.
