House to vote on new speaker today
Welcome to the new session of Congress, live blog readers.
Today at 12pm ET, the House of Representatives will begin the process of electing a new speaker, which could drag on for days if incumbent leader Mike Johnson cannot unify the Republican conference.
Johnson easily won his conference’s speaker nomination in November, but House Republicans’ narrow majority and the recent, highly contentious negotiations over a government funding package have imperiled his bid.
With former representative Matt Gaetz’s seat remaining vacant for now, Republicans have 219 House seats to Democrats’ 215. That means that, assuming every House member is in attendance and voting for a speaker candidate, Johnson can only afford a single Republican defection and still keep the gavel.
One House Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already indicated he will not support Johnson on the first ballot today.
“You can pull all my fingernails out; you can shove bamboo up in them; you can start cutting off my fingers,” Massie told Gaetz, who is now a host for One America News, in an interview yesterday. “I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank.”
Now the question becomes whether one other Republican will join Massie. Given the dozens of Republicans who remain outraged over Johnson’s attempt to pass a bipartisan funding deal with Democratic support last month, his victory is far from guaranteed.
Although speakership races have historically been straightforward affairs with little drama involved, that all changed in 2023, when the speakership election of the new Congress stretched on for days. It took Kevin McCarthy, Republicans’ speaker nominee, 15 ballots to capture the gavel, and he was ousted from his post just nine months later.
But Johnson has one major advantage heading into the vote: an endorsement from Donald Trump. The president-elect threw his support behind Johnson on Monday, and he doubled down on the endorsement in a post on Truth Social this morning.
“Good luck today for Speaker Mike Johnson, a fine man of great ability, who is very close to having 100% support,” Trump said. “A win for Mike today will be a big win for the Republican Party.”
Will Trump’s endorsement be enough to get Johnson across the finish line? The outcome remains unclear, so stay tuned.
Key events
Roy’s leadership of rules committee emerges as sticking point
One House Republican to watch closely today will be Chip Roy of Texas, who voiced staunch criticism of Mike Johnson during the negotiations over government funding last month.
Roy said Wednesday that he remained “undecided” on whether to support Johnson and again demanded changes to the appropriations process moving forward.
But a handful of Johnson skeptics have indicated that they would be more inclined to support his speakership bid if he made Roy the chair of the influential rules committee.
Asked about the idea of elevating Roy, Johnson told reporters this morning, “I’m not making deals with anybody.”
It’s worth noting that Roy has developed a reputation as somewhat of a bomb thrower within the Republican conference, so such a deal could alienate as many members as it appeases.
Representative Don Bacon, a Republican of Nebraska, told a reporter for NOTUS this morning, “Putting Chip Roy in charge of the rules committee is like putting Stalin in charge of amnesty and diplomacy.”
The Guardian’s Joseph Gedeon has more context on the tricky math that Mike Johnson must overcome to win the speakership today:
Assuming all 434 current House members participate (there is one vacancy), Mike Johnson needs 218 votes to win. With Democrats expected to unite behind their leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and Thomas Massie planning to vote against him, Johnson starts with exactly 218 potential votes – the bare minimum needed. Any additional defection would deny him a majority and force a second ballot.
However, members can vote “present” instead of naming a candidate, which would lower the threshold needed for victory by reducing the total number of votes cast for candidates.
Several prominent Republicans remain noncommittal, including Texas representative Chip Roy, Arizona representative Andy Biggs, Pennsylvania representative Scott Perry, Indiana representative Victoria Spartz and House Freedom caucus chair Andy Harris from Maryland – despite Johnson receiving Donald Trump’s endorsement earlier this week.
Johnson’s team has reportedly been working frantically behind the scenes, conducting last-minute negotiations with various Republican factions to secure their support.
If the House cannot elect a speaker on the first ballot this afternoon, then all business of the chamber will grind to a halt until a leader is chosen.
In October 2023, after Republican Kevin McCarthy was removed from the speaker’s chair, it took weeks to elect his replacement, leaving the House unable to consider any legislation for most of the month.
The stakes of the speakership race will be even higher given the chamber’s crucial business this month. House members cannot be formally sworn in for the new session of Congress until a speaker is chosen, and the chamber needs to certify the results of the presidential election in just three days.
House to vote on new speaker today
Welcome to the new session of Congress, live blog readers.
Today at 12pm ET, the House of Representatives will begin the process of electing a new speaker, which could drag on for days if incumbent leader Mike Johnson cannot unify the Republican conference.
Johnson easily won his conference’s speaker nomination in November, but House Republicans’ narrow majority and the recent, highly contentious negotiations over a government funding package have imperiled his bid.
With former representative Matt Gaetz’s seat remaining vacant for now, Republicans have 219 House seats to Democrats’ 215. That means that, assuming every House member is in attendance and voting for a speaker candidate, Johnson can only afford a single Republican defection and still keep the gavel.
One House Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already indicated he will not support Johnson on the first ballot today.
“You can pull all my fingernails out; you can shove bamboo up in them; you can start cutting off my fingers,” Massie told Gaetz, who is now a host for One America News, in an interview yesterday. “I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank.”
Now the question becomes whether one other Republican will join Massie. Given the dozens of Republicans who remain outraged over Johnson’s attempt to pass a bipartisan funding deal with Democratic support last month, his victory is far from guaranteed.
Although speakership races have historically been straightforward affairs with little drama involved, that all changed in 2023, when the speakership election of the new Congress stretched on for days. It took Kevin McCarthy, Republicans’ speaker nominee, 15 ballots to capture the gavel, and he was ousted from his post just nine months later.
But Johnson has one major advantage heading into the vote: an endorsement from Donald Trump. The president-elect threw his support behind Johnson on Monday, and he doubled down on the endorsement in a post on Truth Social this morning.
“Good luck today for Speaker Mike Johnson, a fine man of great ability, who is very close to having 100% support,” Trump said. “A win for Mike today will be a big win for the Republican Party.”
Will Trump’s endorsement be enough to get Johnson across the finish line? The outcome remains unclear, so stay tuned.
