Three AFC playoff games. Three blowouts. It’s a good job the league dropped the “Super” part from their Wildcard Weekend sales pitch.
But within those blowouts was something magical, the appetizer to what should be the tastiest main course of the season: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens against Josh Allen’s Bills in a win-or-go-home, be-crowned-or-memed, MVP-off in the divisional round this coming weekend.
Taken together, Jackson and Allen completed 36 of 47 passes, for 447 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions in the wildcard round. And this against two of the most fearsome defensive fronts in the NFL. No one has hunted quarterbacks this season like the Broncos, and no one brings four All-Pro caliber pass-rushers to the party like the Steelers.
It didn’t matter. By the advanced metrics, we saw two of the most efficient, impressive quarterback performances of the season. Jackson completed 12.8% more of his passes than expected against the Steelers on Saturday, according to Next Gen Stats. Not to be outdone, Allen completed 16.5% of his passes over expectation against the Broncos on Sunday.
In one sense, part of the joy in comparing Allen and Jackson is how similar they are. The way their legs change the math of the game, how they challenge defenses and orchestrate complicated offenses. They have mastered the details that excite the nerds, but at any point, they are a threat to drop a supernova highlight that overwhelms the TikTok servers.
And yet there is a clear aesthetic difference. Jackson is lithe, skilled, a speedster who can apparate in and out of creases along the line of scrimmage before anyone else even sees what is unfolding. Allen is a wrecking ball, a 240lbs labrador bounding around the field who hits defenders like a cement truck when they encroach on his personal space.
At the age of 28, both, somehow, are peaking. Rarely do you see a two-time MVP and a future Hall of Famer tap into new fabrics of their game seven years into their respective careers. Yet Allen and Jackson have ratcheted things up another level this season. They’ve been in (almost) every situation. They’ve seen every defense. They know the solution to every problem. And finally, they each have the supporting cast to compete for a championship.
You can pick holes in their postseason records. In past playoffs, both players have been undone by volatility. They have been such out-of-time artists, carrying such a creative burden, that they have gone haywire against the best. Jackson has been derailed by trying to do too much in a flailing offensive system. Allen has had few postseason stinkers, but when he has, it’s been because he’s indulged his penchant for hero ball.
That’s vanished this year. Just as Jackson and the Ravens have leaned into an offense built around Derrick Henry and their power-run game, Allen and the Bills have also leaned into a run-based approach.
The Ravens and Bills deserve credit for switching gears. They recognized that the era of off-script quarterbacks who could scramble around and pilot a team to successive playoff wins on their own was over. Defenses had caught up. The response has been for the best offenses to double down on the run game as the foundation of an explosive passing game. The Lions, Eagles, Bills and Ravens have all committed to a bruising style that forces defenses to respect the run game, making life easier for quarterbacks to throw. Around 20% of the Bills offense comes with an extra lineman on the field, extra mass to crush defensive fronts, the highest figure for any team since 1994. They have bludgeoned fools all season, and they controlled the line of scrimmage against the Broncos on Sunday. Baltimore’s answer to the test was simpler: they signed Henry, the toughest, most effective runner of his era. The reality of the Jackson-Henry pairing has been more impactful, imposing, and important than it even sounded in theory. When you pair that grinding style, run-first style with Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts, you put together a winning machine. Drop Jackson or Allen into a similar ecosystem, and it’s downright scary.
The fear of what Jackson and Allen can do when they drop back to pass, or take off as runners, opens up space for everyone else. In the before times (18 months ago), that meant putting more on their plates: more options in the passing game, and more work as a runner. But both franchises have figured out that limiting the down-to-down requirements on their quarterback can elevate their games. Rather than relying on the individual heroics, they call on it when it’s needed most. Allen and Jackson are turning the ball over at the lowest rates of their careers.
The old Jackson and Allen are still in there. If either team is going to win it all, they will probably need a legendary performance from their all-world quarterback at some point. And there have been plenty of times this season when Allen and Jackson have risen above the constraints of their offense and the personnel around them to put their teams on their backs. But navigating through the playoffs is a slog. It requires a team to shapeshift between styles. In the past, Jackson and Allen have led teams with a one-dimensional style. If they were not at their best, their teams would come unstuck. In more complete teams, they’re putting together the best seasons of their careers.
Building a team deep enough to play multiple styles well involves a limbo dance under the salary cap. The embrace of a new way of doing things goes beyond the two transcendent players, but it is because of Allen and Jackson that the two styles are working. Both men can methodically lead charges down the field or break the game open with one pass or one run. Jackson is in his Peyton Manning era, commanding things at the line of scrimmage. Allen is channeling parts of his inner early Tom Brady, turning the ball over to his ground attack until he’s needed in critical spots.
It has been Patrick Mahomes’ league since he stepped on to the field as a starter – no matter how well Brady tried to fend him off. This season may be defined by Dan Campbell’s Fightin’ Lions, the Eagles’ overwhelming roster or Mahomes dragging the Chiefs to a three-peat. But savor this week, because the best two quarterbacks of this season will face off with the two most well-rounded offenses. One mistake could be enough to make the difference – an errant throw, a misread, a turnover. The wildcard round may have been a dud, but it has teed up something special.
MVP of the week
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders. In his rookie season, Daniels led Washington to their first playoff victory in 19 years, winning 23-20 on the road in Tampa. The Commanders had plenty of help from the Bucs, who managed to gag away a winnable game thanks to a Baker Mayfield fumble, a late botched snap and poor clock management from coach Todd Bowles. And it took a friendly doink on the game-winning field goal for Washington to seal the win. But Daniels, as ever, was money for the Commanders in clutch moments. Washington burned through the early downs with a run game that could never quite get going before giving the ball to their rookie quarterback to bail them out on third downs. Daniels stood in and delivered against Bowles’s all-out, blitzing defense, finishing with 304 all-purpose yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Video of the week
There may not be a more disrespectful move than the triple stiff arm. That’s what Eagles’ tight end Dallas Goedert dropped on Packers’ cornerback Carrington Valentine on his way to a 24-yard touchdown.
It was the ultimate show of bully ball. Goedert first grabbed a wayward pass from Jalen Hurts before dropping his shoulder and blasting Valentine. Then he snuck in a quick hand to the face to create some separation from the corner. But Valentine hung in. At the nine-yard line, Goedert entered big brother mode, sticking a paw in Valentine’s facemask to clear a path to the endzone. As he was about to cross the line, Goedert slowed down, all so he could tag Valentine with an extra shot before the score. Given the state of the NFL, it was a wonder he was not flagged for taunting mid-play.
The Eagles cruised to a 22-10 win over the Packers in an ugly game in Philadelphia. By the end, Green Bay’s offense was so depleted that they could not keep the game close, with the team missing their top three wide receivers, starting running back, center, left guard and backup left guard to injuries.The Eagles were so comfortable against the hobbled Packers that AJ Brown took to reading a book on the sideline.
Stat of the week
Four. Justin Herbert threw more interceptions (four) in the Chargers’ 32-12 defeat to the Texans than in the entire 2024 regular season (three).
It’s time to fire up your Justin-Herbert-as-Joel-Embiid memes. The narrative that the Chargers quarterback is a regular-season darling but a playoff pretender is already up and running, even if it is a very small sample size. Herbert has played in two playoff games in his five-year career. In both games, he has led a road favorite against an underbaked AFC South division champion. And in both games, he has melted down in the second half.
Just how bad was his performance against the Texans? Brian Hoyer levels of bad. Out of 214 QB performances in the playoffs over the last 10 seasons, Herbert’s against the Texans ranks 213th in EPA per pass play, according to Sheil Kapadia. Only Hoyer’s game for the Texans in a 30-0 defeat to the Chiefs in the 2015 playoffs was worse.
The Texans’ pass-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson won the all-important matchup upfront, detonating the pocket and pressuring Herbert on over half of his dropbacks. Those are tough conditions for any quarterback, but the best elevate above such conditions and make tough throws under pressure. Instead, Herbert looked frazzled, making a series of head-shake-inducing decisions that robbed the Chargers of points.
Not all of the interceptions were on Herbert, and a pair came with the game already out of hand. But the Chargers had a chance to take a two-score lead before his baffling decision to throw across his body and into double coverage.
As he has evolved as his player, Herbert has sanded off some of the rough elements of his game. In his first year with Jim Harbaugh, the playmaking side of his game has been stripped back, leaving us with a chuck-or-dump quarterback who hunts shots downfield before hitting check-downs. His low turnover total in the regular season was a result of Herbert playing within himself, recognizing that the Chargers’ lack of talent meant there was a minimal margin for error. But in a win-or-go-home game, he reverted to old habits, chasing the one throw that would win the game and putting him out of sync with the rest of the offense. But beyond that, his panic was visceral. Herbert typically plays at his own pace, a droning, calm quarterback who keeps his howitzer in check until needed. He isn’t a traditional gunslinger. But against the Texans, he looked in over his head, trying to beat the defense with fastballs and struggling to see the field.
LA’s defeat exposed flaws in the team’s roster. Making the playoffs alone with an ill-equipped squad in Jim Harbaugh’s first season is a success. But Herbert’s panic-filled performance is a worrying sign as the Chargers build for the future. There are benchmarks for true franchise starters. Herbert has yet to pass a vital one.
Elsewhere around the league
— A fourth consecutive wildcard game blowout should be a wake-up call to the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has proven to be one of the finest floor-raising coaches in the league. But his reputation still rests on a Super Bowl win in 2008; he’s no longer a ceiling raiser. Tomlin is now 8-11 in playoffs, and 0-5 in the last eight years. For a franchise with championship expectations, that’s not good enough. Tomlin approaches things methodically, but it’s time for a hard reset. Whether that’s changing his coordinators or trying to swing a trade for Kyler Murray or JJ McCarthy, the Steelers need a jolt of something new to end their playoff purgatory.
— We have our first head coach hire of the offseason. Mike Vrabel is on his way to New England, replacing the one-and-done Jerod Mayo. The former Titans head coach and Patriots linebacker is known for maximizing the talent on his roster and is the kind of culture builder the team needs after their year under Mayo. Vrabel’s first four seasons in Tennessee all resulted in winning records, with three playoff appearances, an AFC Championship game appearance and the Coach of the Year award in 2021.
— According to CBS, the NFL is reviewing potential changes to the playoff format. One element under review is how the league seeds the top four playoff teams. Currently, division champions are handed the top four seeds and a home playoff game. But the league will discuss this offseason whether to switch to a new seeding plan that would seed the top four teams by their regular-season win percentage.
