Introduction
Good morning from Davos, where the first full day of the World Economic Forum is getting underway.
We’ll hear from a slew of global leaders, as the world digests the inauguration of Donald Trump yesterday, and the flurry of executive orders from the White House.
That includes Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of China, where there may be relief that Trump has declined to flesh out his plans for taxing Chinese imports.
But while the much-feared trade war hasn’t kicked off, yet anyway, there’s anxiety over what the next few years will bring – with escalating armed conflict seen as the biggest risk facing the world economy.
Karen Harris, managing director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, points out that the last five years have been the most “macro-economically shocking in modern history”, starting with the Covid-19 pandemic and followed by the inflation shock.
Harris adds:
“As business and political leaders gather in Davos in 2025, one key question dominates: Will this tumultuous five-year period end with a gentle return to normal?
“The data suggests so. The IMF projects 2024 global growth at 3.2%, slightly below the 2010–2019 median of 3.5%, with 2025 growth at 3.3%. To our 2019 selves, these numbers might imply normalcy: the US and China driving growth, Europe sluggish, global output steady at 3–3.5%.
“Yet beneath these numbers sits fragility: alarming unemployment change in the US, deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and a high degree of equity market concentration**.
“Additionally, the change of US administration also challenges this narrative. A focus on reducing trade deficits, primarily affecting China but also Europe, could disrupt the US’s role as a major provider of global demand. If the US undergoes such structural shifts, the EU could face intense competition with China for export market share. This complicates the notion of a back-to-normal soft landing. Instead, normal will be continued uncertainty.”
The agenda
-
8.15am CET / 7.15am GMT: A session on ‘47th US Presidency Early Thoughts’
-
9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Conversation with David Beckham
-
9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Session on the US Dollar
-
10.50am CET / 9.50am GMT: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
-
11.20am CET /10.20am GMT: Special Address by Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China
-
1pm CET / noon GMT: A session on crypto
-
2pm CET / 1pm GMT: Special Address by Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany
-
2.30pm CET / 1.30pm GMT: Special Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
-
3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Special Address by Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
-
5pm CET/ 4pm GMT: A Conversation with Isaac Herzog, President of Israel
Key events
Trump crypto meme coin has hints of kleptocracy
Donald Trump’s decision to launch a crypto meme coin last week is a sign that we have entered a new era, delegates here have heard.
Analyst Ian Bremmer says the move is “unprecedented”, and asks delegates to imagine the reaction if Indian prime minister Narendra Modi had taken such a mood.
Bremmer says:
If India were doing this, we’d say this was a kleptocracy.
[Reminder: The value of Trump’s coin soared in value after it was launched, only to reverse after a Melania coin was debuted]
On Trump’s crypto move, Harvard’s Graham Allison says:
“We are in a new world where that will be the new normal, for a while.”
Allison also compares the situation in the US today to the actions of the robber barrons – the wealthy, powerful and unethical businessmen of the 19th century.
He says questions about whether Elon Musk will use his influence to promote his companies miss an important point – it’s his feduciary duty to do just that!
Trump’s return to the White House is the biggest political comeback ever, says Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
Allison tells WEF:
“Trump has done something no person in the world has ever done before. A dead politician has risen”
Four years ago at Davos, Trump was dead and buried, Allison reminds delegates, adding:
“This is the biggest comeback in history, for a politician”
Trump’s new administration will come under inflationary pressure, warns Allison Schrager, senior fellow at The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, but may also deliver higher growth,
A wide rollout of tariffs would lead to a move higher in the price level, Schrager points out
Another challengs will be higher bond yields, which mean the cost of borrowing will be higher.
Schrager is optimistic the new administration have a progrowth plan, but predicts the deficit is going to go up too.
If Trump cuts corporation tax to 15%, that would be good for growth, she suggests – before pointing to the “vibe shift” in the US.
“There’s a feeling of positivity that is going to bring a lot of growth”
US -China relationship heading for ‘dramatic shift’ under Trump
Donald Trump is looming over delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos today.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, is predicting a “dramatic shift to the US-China relationship” in the next few months.
Bremmer tells WEF that he believes the US China relationship is the one where it will be most problematic to get a deal.
He predicts we are heading towards a trade war, and a more strategic decoupling of the two economies.
“China’s complicated,” Bremmer points out, saying that the only way US-China relations were stabilised recently was due to a large number of bilateral meeting between the two sides.
Bremmer says Trump wants to meet Xi, flatter him, and get a deal…but it wil be hard to get a deal that works for all in his administration, and which will please Congress.
Reeves heads to Davos on investment push
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is heading to the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos later today in a push to win new investment for the UK economy.
Reeves will be emphasising the UK’s political and economic stability and promoting the government as pro-business.
She is expected to meet business leaders including the JPMorgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon, and Jo Taylor, president of giant Canadian pensions fund the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.
Reeves said:
“Business leaders and investors need to know that the UK is where their businesses will flourish, so I’m meeting them face to face in Davos to make our case.”
Introduction
Good morning from Davos, where the first full day of the World Economic Forum is getting underway.
We’ll hear from a slew of global leaders, as the world digests the inauguration of Donald Trump yesterday, and the flurry of executive orders from the White House.
That includes Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of China, where there may be relief that Trump has declined to flesh out his plans for taxing Chinese imports.
But while the much-feared trade war hasn’t kicked off, yet anyway, there’s anxiety over what the next few years will bring – with escalating armed conflict seen as the biggest risk facing the world economy.
Karen Harris, managing director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, points out that the last five years have been the most “macro-economically shocking in modern history”, starting with the Covid-19 pandemic and followed by the inflation shock.
Harris adds:
“As business and political leaders gather in Davos in 2025, one key question dominates: Will this tumultuous five-year period end with a gentle return to normal?
“The data suggests so. The IMF projects 2024 global growth at 3.2%, slightly below the 2010–2019 median of 3.5%, with 2025 growth at 3.3%. To our 2019 selves, these numbers might imply normalcy: the US and China driving growth, Europe sluggish, global output steady at 3–3.5%.
“Yet beneath these numbers sits fragility: alarming unemployment change in the US, deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and a high degree of equity market concentration**.
“Additionally, the change of US administration also challenges this narrative. A focus on reducing trade deficits, primarily affecting China but also Europe, could disrupt the US’s role as a major provider of global demand. If the US undergoes such structural shifts, the EU could face intense competition with China for export market share. This complicates the notion of a back-to-normal soft landing. Instead, normal will be continued uncertainty.”
The agenda
-
8.15am CET / 7.15am GMT: A session on ‘47th US Presidency Early Thoughts’
-
9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Conversation with David Beckham
-
9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Session on the US Dollar
-
10.50am CET / 9.50am GMT: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
-
11.20am CET /10.20am GMT: Special Address by Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China
-
1pm CET / noon GMT: A session on crypto
-
2pm CET / 1pm GMT: Special Address by Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany
-
2.30pm CET / 1.30pm GMT: Special Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
-
3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Special Address by Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
-
5pm CET/ 4pm GMT: A Conversation with Isaac Herzog, President of Israel
