Canada and Mexico brace for Trump tariffs on Saturday; UK house price growth slows – business live | Business

Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

Canada and Mexico are bracing for the impact of 25% US tariffs after Donald Trump said they would be imposed on Saturday.

Trump blamed the countries for his decision to impose tariffs. Both have a close trading relationship with the US, partly because of North American free trade deals, including the one he passed in 2020. Bloomberg News reported that he said:

We’ll be announcing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a number of reasons. Number one is the people that have poured into our country so horribly and so much. Number two are the drugs, fentanyl and everything else that have come into the country. Number three are the massive subsidies that we’re giving to Canada and to Mexico in the form of deficits.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.4% during Asian market trading on Friday, while the Mexican peso slumped by 0.6% against the US dollar.

Oil prices also rose. The price for futures of West Texas Intermediate, the North American oil benchmark, rose by 0.6% to $73.17 per barrel, while prices for Brent crude futures, the North Sea benchmark, rose by 0.3%. Trump has not said whether Canadian oil will be subject to tariffs, although that would run counter to his hopes for lower oil prices.

Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY, a US investment bank, said that the emergence of the DeepSeek AI competition earlier this month and Trump’s tariff threats could puncture the buoyant mood on financial markets. The combination could be an “inflection point” in the mood among investors.

Our data show that investors are getting used to Trump’s policy shifts and rhetoric. Fear of a meaningful change in immigration policy, tariffs and spending has not been borne out.

However, Savage warned that “investing requires greater clarity about the scope, size and reach of Trump’s tariffs”. He wrote:

Our mood index, which captures equity buying against bill selling, remains extremely positive but with peaks this week, suggesting significant downside risks for the month ahead.

Mohit Kumar, who covers global economics at Jefferies, a US investment bank, said:

It is possible that Trump goes ahead with the 25% announcement for Mexico and Canada, which would be market negative. However, we still view tariffs as a negotiating tool and even if Trump does go ahead with the tariffs, it will be followed by a period of intense negotiations and eventually a portion of tariffs will be pulled back. But come Monday morning, there is a possibility of market volatility around tariff news.

UK house price growth slowed says Nationwide

The price of an average UK home rose by 4.1% year-on-year in January, a “modest slowing” compared with December, according to Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society.

House prices increased by 0.1% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects. That leaves the average price at £268,213, according to the transactions Nationwide tracked.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:

The housing market continues to show resilience despite ongoing affordability pressures.

While there has been a modest improvement over the last year, affordability remains stretched by historic standards. A prospective buyer earning the average UK income and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would have a monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 36% of their take-home pay – well above the long-run average of 30%.

The agenda

• 8:55am GMT: Germany unemployment rate (January; previous: 6.1%; consensus: 6.2%)

• 9am GMT: European Central Bank survey of forecasters

• 1pm GMT: Germany inflation rate (January; prev.: 2.6%; cons.: 2.6%)

• 1:30pm GMT: US core personal consumption expenditure inflation rate (December; prev.: 0.1%; cons.: 0.2%)