Before this season, Sam Darnold’s strongest contribution to the NFL canon was “seeing ghosts”.
Darnold was one of several quarterbacks selected early in the first round to wash out with the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he bounced between backup and bridge-starter roles in Carolina and San Francisco before winding up in Minnesota. Now he’s leading one of the hottest teams in the NFL. As injuries and attrition continue to knee-cap the Lions, the Vikings are making a late surge for the No 1 seed in the NFC – and potentially home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s success and to point in every direction other than Darnold. You can rattle off a list of Brian Flores’s wackadoo defense, Justin Jefferson, a solid offensive line and Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system before you hit on the quarterback who is making it all sing. But the reality is that Darnold has played like a top-10 quarterback this season. Despite his breakout year, though, it’s unclear where he will be playing next season.
Darnold was brought to Minnesota to be a bridge to the next generation. The Vikings picked up the veteran on a one-year, $10m deal before selecting JJ McCarthy No 10 overall in the latest draft. But McCarthy’s preseason injury gave Darnold a chance to make the team his own, and through 15 weeks he’s produced at a historic rate. Darnold is just the third quarterback in NFL history to reach 3,500 passing yards, 29 TD passes and a 100-plus passer rating in his first 14 games with a team.
Dig below the bloopers, and the promise of what Darnold could become was there in New York, Carolina and San Francisco: A strong-armed quarterback who could spray the ball all over the field. But could anyone have envisaged this, a franchise-caliber quarterback who is elevating everyone around him?
Given his environment, it’s easy to overlook Darnold’s individual development. He’s working with one of the sport’s finest offensive minds, a star-packed receiving corps, a bruising run game and a reliable tight end. Early in the season, Darnold was aided by the Vikings’ scheme and a set of the best bookend tackles in the league. In recent weeks, though, Darnold has been shelled, with the Vikings routinely conceding pressure rates upwards of 40%. But outside of a pair of errors on Monday night against the Bears, Darnold’s game has risen as his offensive line has slipped away.
The Darnold of 2024 is not the same player he was with the Jets. He has evolved. Darnold’s accuracy has improved. He’s making plays on the move. He’s hitting tight-window throws at a league-leading clip. Whereas he was once the most panic-riddled quarterback in the league, he has a new-found sense of calm with the Vikings. In New York, Darnold folded against pressure and turtled when blitzed. These days, Darnold is one of the league’s best quarterbacks when the pocket is caving in. He is fifth in the league in “plus accuracy” this season when under pressure, a measure of how often he throws his target open. That’s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.
Back when he was seeing ghosts, defenses attacked Darnold by tagging an extra player into the pass rush and blurring their coverage on the back end. Pairing extra heat with a wonky defensive rotation scrambled the quarterback’s decision-making. During his ill-fated three seasons with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against the blitz. He struggled to see the field and lofted panicked throws into congested areas.
The same what-is-he-thinking decisions have dotted this season, too. He’s up to 11 interceptions and 18 turnover-worthy plays in 14 starts. But much of the ugliness has been stripped from his game. He’s navigated pressure as well as any quarterback in the league, getting rid of the ball in-rhythm and showing a sense for creating plays on the fly. And against the blitz, Darnold has been money this year. When defenses send five or more pass-rushers this season, Darnold has completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt and thrown 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions. This season, his turnovers have largely come on erratic decisions outside the pocket or trusting his receivers to come down with 50-50 balls.
The idea of Darnold being the one to gag a game away is also a thing of the past. When games are tight, he improves. If you’re checking off the traits of a franchise starter, he’s ripping through the list.
What we’ve seen this season is not a quarterback finally delivering on their potential, but a player who has redefined his game.
His growth makes Darnold the most intriguing free agent this offseason. Is the rest of the league buying his transformation from a ho-hum, error-strewn backup into a legitimate starter? Is he Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? We will soon find out.
The success of Darnold coupled with McCarthy’s injury has left the Vikings with a fascinating dilemma: will they re-sign Darnold to a bumper contract or begin the transition to McCarthy and let Darnold walk?
When Darnold hits the open market, the benchmark for his next contract will likely be Baker Mayfield’s deal with the Bucs. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who flamed out in his original spot before reinvigorating his career elsewhere. In Tampa, Mayfield showed his credentials as a starter on a one-year, prove-it deal and was rewarded a three-year, $100m contract from the Bucs. But Mayfield did not join an organization that had already selected their heir apparent.
If Mayfield’s contract is Darnold’s starting point in negotiations, can the Vikings afford to commit so much money to him with McCarthy already on the books? If not, how long will Darnold’s list of other suitors be?
That’s where things are murky. One sneaky storyline for this upcoming offseason is that plenty of quarterback-needy teams have little wiggle room to acquire an established veteran, or even to take a chance on a reclamation project. Most teams in the league either have a locked-in long-term starter or a young quarterback they believe in. Even a team like Carolina, who looked like a possible quarterback destination midway through the season, have seen enough from Bryce Young this season to roll into next year with the former No 1 overall pick as the team’s guaranteed starter.
Three teams with a pressing quarterback need (the Saints, Browns and Jets) either have veterans in place or are stuck in salary cap hell. Even if the Jets can fudge the cap to create enough room to make an offer to Darnold, it’s unlikely he will want to return to the franchise that ran him out of town.
That leaves a small list of potential destinations: the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Maybe the Colts will be interested if they sour on Anthony Richardson (again). Matthew Stafford may retire at the end of the season, clearing up a clean landing spot for Darnold with the Rams. But if Stafford returns and the Colts opt to Trust The Process, Darnold will be down to three plausible suitors outside Minnesota.
Those three franchises will also look to the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Like the Vikings last offseason, they will likely try to pair that draftee with a veteran on a cheap deal to guide the rookie through their first season. Will Darnold be interested in putting himself in the same situation two seasons in a row? If he chooses to leave Minnesota, surely it will be for a place where he’s the guaranteed starter. If not, why leave Minnesota at all? In that scenario, it would make more sense for Darnold to return, even if it means taking a discount. McCarthy will still essentially be a rookie next year and will be returning from a knee injury. Darnold could maintain his starting role until the Vikings feel McCarthy is the better option.
That offers another possibility: what if Darnold is just this good moving forward, so long as he’s playing in O’Connell’s system? Would the Vikings be open to trading McCarthy a year down the line, without seeing him play a snap, if Darnold continues to produce at a top-10 level? Or would they try to mimic the Packers model, viewing McCarthy as the Jordan Love to Darnold’s (don’t laugh) Aaron Rodgers?
The answers to those questions will start to come in the offseason. But Darnold has proven he is a starter-level quarterback who can thrive in the right ecosystem. He’s shown fresh strands to his game, which should encourage another franchise that his game will translate elsewhere.
Whether he moves or not may depend on how the Vikings close the season. If Darnold barfs away a playoff game, the Vikings may decide it’s time for McCarthy. But there is a real, actual chance that Darnold and the Vikings will be holding the Lombardi in February. Regardless of whether they win a championship or fall just short, what will follow will be one of the most fascinating quarterback dilemmas in recent league history.
