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We’re just weeks away now from do-or-die playoff action ahead of the final two weeks of the NFL regular season.
The playoff picture in the AFC conference looks near-certain, with Patrick Mahomes leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the No 1 seed ahead of the Buffalo Bills, and only a handful of teams able to force their way into the wild card round in the remaining week.
Yet the situation for those final playoff spots are much tighter in the NFC, with two teams with winning records – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks – currently narrowly outside the top-seven spots.
But plenty can change before Sunday 5 January, when the final regular season matches take place.
The Independent now takes a look at the NFL playoff picture – and who can stay in the race for the Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on 9 February.
AFC
The six teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) – No 1 seed guaranteed, have won AFC West
- Buffalo Bills (13-3) – have won AFC East
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
- Houston Texans (9-7) – have won AFC South
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC, meaning they receive a bye to the divisional round – and will play that match at home.
Andy Reid’s side, the defending champions as they go for three NFL titles in a row, will also play the AFC Championship match at home should they reach that stage.
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans have already won their divisons, guaranteeing a wild card round match at home, and the Bills look set to seal the No 2 seed, which would mean home games all the way to the Super Bowl unless the AFC Championship clash is against Kansas City.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are battling it out for the AFC North title, although the runner-up will still make the play-offs as a wild card, while the Los Angeles Chargers sealed a wild card spot by thrashing the New England Patriots on Saturday of week 17.
Who is in the box seat?
- Denver Broncos (9-7) – playoff chances: 55%
The Broncos are one win away from a play-off spot but that has been true for each of the last two weeks when they lost to the Chargers and then the Cincinnati Bengals. They host the Chiefs on the final weekend and defeat would put them in real danger of missing a play-off spot but it is likely to be a much-changed Kansas City team, given they have already locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC.
Who is still in contention?
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – playoff chances: 17%
- Miami Dolphins (8-8) – playoff chances: 28%
Each of these two teams must win their remaining match to reach 9-8 and then hope the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, dropping Denver to 9-8, to give themselves a chance of sneaking into the playoffs. If that happens, it comes down to tiebreakers. The Colts were eliminated after their 45-33 defeat to the New York Giants on Sunday.
This is where it gets complicated. Let’s presume the Broncos lose to the Chiefs:
- The Bengals need the Dolphins to lose one of their final two games (while winning themselves) to take the final wild card spot.
- The Dolphins just need to win their final match against the New York Jets to take the final wild card spot as they have the tiebreaker over the Bengals and Broncos.
Who is definitely out?
- Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
- New York Jets (4-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
- New England Patriots (3-13)
NFC
The six teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Detroit Lions (13-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) – have won NFC East
- Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
- Green Bay Packers (11-5)
- Washington Commanders (11-5)
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6) – have won NFC West
No team in the NFC has mathematically won their division yet but these four teams (three of whom – the Lions, Vikings and Packers – are in the NFC North) are all guaranteed a play-off spot. It’s a shootout between the Lions and Vikings for the NFC North title, with the Packers guaranteed a wild card spot.
The Eagles will win the NFC East if they win either or their final two games, or the Washington Commanders lose either of their final two.
The Commanders sealed their spot with a 30-24 win over the Atlanta Falcons to book a wild card spot. The Rams are there after beating the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night.
Who is in the box seat?
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) – chances of playoffs: 81%
Between the Falcons and the Buccaneers in the NFC South, it is neck-and-neck. Atlanta lost to Washington on Sunday night in a massive match with huge consequences and are now on the back foot, with the Buccaneers beating the Panthers convincingly.
The Buccaneers host the Saints (5-11) on Sunday night. Win and they win the NFC South and are through to the playoffs. If they slip up, the Falcons can capitalise as they host the Panthers
Who is still in contention?
- Atlanta Falcons (8-8) – chances of playoffs: 19%
Who is definitely out?
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-11)
- Carolina Panthers (4-11)
- New York Giants (2-13)
When do the playoffs start?
The wildcard round – featuring six matches – starts on Saturday 11 January.
The divisional rounds are on the weekend starting on 18 January, with the conference championships a week later.
Super Bowl LIX is on Sunday 9 February.
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