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We’re just weeks away now from do-or-die playoff action ahead of the final two weeks of the NFL regular season.
The playoff picture in the AFC conference looks near-certain, with Patrick Mahomes leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the No 1 seed ahead of the Buffalo Bills, and only a handful of teams able to force their way into the wild card rounds in the remaining weeks.
Yet the situation for those final playoff spots are much tighter in the NFC, with two teams with winning records – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks – currently narrowly outside the top-seven spots.
But plenty can change before Sunday 5 January, when the final regular season matches take place.
The Independent now takes a look at the NFL playoff picture – and who can stay in the race for the Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on 9 February.
AFC
The five teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) – No 1 seed guaranteed
- Buffalo Bills (12-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
- Houston Texans (9-7)
That means the Kansas City Chiefs receive a bye to the divisional round – and will play that match at home.
Andy Reid’s side, the defending champions as they go for three NFL titles in a row, will also play the AFC Championship match at home should they reach that stage.
Who is in the box seat?
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) – chances of playoffs: 94%
- Denver Broncos (9-6) – chances of playoffs: 76%
The Chargers are one win away from a playoff berth. However, they are on the road in their last two matches but in clashes they are favourites to win: at the Patriots and at the Raiders.
The Broncos are also one win away from a playoff spot. Fascinatingly, they travel to Cincinnati on Saturday (who are still just in contention) before hosting what is likely to be a much-changed Chiefs side on the final weekend.
Who is still in contention?
- Indianapolis Colts (7-8) – chances of playoffs: 15%
- Miami Dolphins (7-8) – chances of playoffs: 9%
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) – chances of playoffs: 7%
Who is definitely out?
- New York Jets (4-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
- New England Patriots (3-12)
NFC
The four teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Detroit Lions (13-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
- Green Bay Packers (13-2)
Who is in the box seat?
- Washington Commanders (10-5) – chances of playoffs: 94%
- Los Angeles Rams (9-6) – chances of playoffs: 86%
- Atlanta Falcons (8-7) – chances of playoffs: 54%
The Commanders can seal a playoff spot this week if they beat the Falcons or the Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers.
After the Seahawks narrowly beat the Bears on Christmas Day, the Rams must beat the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night to stay ahead of their rivals in the NFC West.
But between the Falcons and the Buccaneers in the NFC South, it is neck-and-neck. Atlanta travel to Washington on Sunday night in a massive match with huge consequences, before hosting the Panthers on the final weekend.
The Seahawks have done their job this week. But on the final weekend, they travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams. They will be hoping Sean McVay’s side have already sealed their playoff spot and may, therefore, rest and rotate.
Who is still in contention?
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) – chances of playoffs: 51%
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7) – chances of playoffs: 14%
Who is definitely out?
- Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-11)
- Carolina Panthers (4-11)
- New York Giants (2-13)
When do the playoffs start?
The wildcard round – featuring six matches – starts on Saturday 11 January.
The divisional rounds are on the weekend starting on 18 January, with the conference championships a week later.
Super Bowl LIX is on Sunday 9 February.
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