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As a sign of how constrained this January window might be, one mid-level Champions League club briefly considered whether a move for Marcus Rashford might be possible. There was a feeling his comments about leaving Manchester United could lead to a knock-down price… only for their interest to almost immediately be knocked down. The plan to try and enquire about a £30m deal didn’t even get off the ground.
The gap to what United would actually want, which is understood to be beyond £60m, shows how it might take an awful lot to get this market going. One circular problem sums up everything. Most Premier League clubs want to do significant business but PSR has left highly-paid squads with little headroom, and those in Europe just don’t have the money to spend. Many of the latter are still struggling after Covid, especially when the English competition so inflates the wage race. As a consequence, almost everyone needs to sell first, but there are few buyers to make that happen. That is the set-up for stagnation, and a market that simply won’t move.
Manchester United are a grand illustration of this, as virtually every player has to prove themselves to Ruben Amorim. The club leadership would like to immediately start a huge overhaul of their squad, but it is going to be more difficult than ever to move high-paid players on in a constricted market. United may have to take a wage hit on some loan deals, but the problem is that the club are at a point now where they want a properly clean slate. Temporary deals don’t quite cut it to do what they want to do.
Hence there’s the contradiction of a star like Rashford looking one of their few sellable assets, at the same time that many people in football describe his total cost – in terms of asking price and wage – as making him “close to unsellable”.
He may have to look abroad, in the hope that giants such as Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain or Juventus revive previous interest. Barcelona, who were hugely keen on Rashford half a decade ago, have to battle to re-register Dani Olmo. That’s a sign of business outside England.
There are some exceptions to all this, including Crystal Palace, as well as two of the wealthiest clubs in Liverpool and Manchester City. The latter just raise another issue, though.
City’s movements over the past few windows have brought in a lot of income, leaving them with a considerable budget for 2025. They would like to make a number of deals, especially amid recent difficulties with a small squad. The problem that City have got is that it’s not exactly a good time for anyone to commit to the club. Some previous targets have already privately confided that the Premier League hearing weighed over their thinking. There is the possibility that City could be relegated through points deduction or expelled. Even if the case doesn’t come to something so drastic, a question many in the market are asking is why anyone would run the risk of going there so close to the outcome? City of course insist on their innocence. In the meantime, one of the few clubs who can spend may struggle to spend.
Market insiders consequently believe that it will probably take one big sale to unlock the window, and spark the kind of chain reaction that releases clubs to spend. Someone would need a big influx of cash to go.
Agents believe that could instantly turn the market from one that is quiet into one that is extremely hectic. Virtually every club feels they have gaps, after all.
Martin Zubimendi is one such big target, even if Real Sociedad would be unlikely to spend much of his release fee. All of Liverpool, City and Arsenal want him.
That may be irrelevant, though. Zubimendi is currently hugely reluctant to move in January, to the point a transfer would “shock” those at La Real. The midfielder would prefer to decide his future in the summer, which is a common feeling. Many club executives would understand.
It’s still true that January isn’t the best time to do business, given what selling clubs seek to charge, and the general sense of everything being more frantic. If clubs are bringing in a starter or senior player, they would much prefer to make calmer decisions in the summer.
Some are prepared to play it safe in mid-table rather than take a risk for that very reason, even if they would never admit this outwardly. The January market has become, in the words of numerous contacts, a very “risk-averse environment”.
That is at least unless the right deal becomes available, which is why Evan Ferguson is a name that could trend even more than Zubimendi. Fabian Hurzeler has denied that the 20-year-old is available, and Brighton still naturally see him as a huge prospect for the future. It is precisely because of the latter point, as well as Ferguson’s recent struggles with injury, that many potential suitors think the south-coast club could be open to a loan deal until the end of the season.
Fulham have an interest in exactly that type of offer. If they escalate their interest, though, it is entirely possible that clubs like Everton and even Tottenham Hotspur follow them in. Manchester United and Arsenal have longstanding interest in Ferguson, too, although clubs of that stature may want to see more minutes out of him again in order to act.
This is a vignette of the window: few being willing to commit, everyone waiting to see what happens elsewhere. That might go right until the end of the window. The only change will be if that single big deal goes through.
