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The new Champions League format has perhaps not been a roaring success in the manner Uefa insisted it would be, with high-profile ties not exactly setting the world alight and some familiar faces at the top, plus expected ones at the bottom of a hugely elongated table.
Not to mention it’s near-impossible to absorb any kind of context or overall totality of the situation when looking at the standings, given the sheer volume of teams involved.
But with two matches left to play, there are a handful of teams which are a surprise, that they still have work to do to make even the playoffs.
While Liverpool have been perfect and top the table, and both Arsenal and Aston Villa are almost there with top-eight finishes to guarantee a spot in the last 16 – one more win each might do it – Manchester City haven’t even yet assured themselves of action beyond January.
Here’s a run-down of what they, Celtic and some of the rest of Europe’s biggest names still need to achieve to be in the draw for the play-offs.
Man City
Pep Guardiola’s team were beaten again last time out, a 2-0 reversal at Juventus leaving them 22nd with just eight points. Earlier projections suggested teams would have a fine chance of making the play-offs if they reached nine, but that now looks slightly short – ten may be required for most to be in the hat.
So they can of course still get there, but where are victories coming from right now?
Their remaining fixtures are away to Paris Saint-Germain – more on them later – and then home to Club Bruges. It seems incredible, but City may well need a desperate final-gameweek win against a team above them – Bruges are 19th, already on ten points – to sneak into the playoffs.
Celtic
One place and one point above Guardiola’s side are Scottish Premiership leaders Celtic. They’ve only lost once in Europe and have conceded fewer than Real Madrid, but drawing their way to the knock-out stage is a risky strategy.
Given their last match is away to Aston Villa, who are fifth with only one defeat, it’s not sensational to suggest the Bhoys’ fortunes rest on their very next game, which is home to Swiss side Young Boys.
Here’s the good news: Young Boys are rock bottom, 36th place, with zero points on the board and only three goals scored and 22 conceded – the most in the Champions League.
Being positive without underestimating the opponent is the way for Celtic surely, and a win guarantees them a place in the draw.
Real Madrid
Champions of Europe, 20th in the table. It hasn’t been vintage but a win over Atalanta puts Los Blancos almost there – they have Salzburg next which should be a routine win to wrap things up. Their last match is at Brest, which is difficult, but one win guarantees them a place in the top 24 and two should get them into the top half of the playoff draw.
PSG
Here’s the biggest doubt, and the most shocking development. Eight games should level out as enough that even underperformance from the biggest, best, richest sides means they still go through.
But Paris Saint-Germain are really in danger of striking a line through that thought.
It’s not just they are 25th, one place and one point below the line, it’s their remaining two games: home to Manchester City and then away to Stuttgart, who are one place below them and level on points.
PSG must win one, two draws might be enough but isn’t a guarantee, and they are not playing in Europe as though victories are any kind of a certainty. They are very, very close to flunking out.
Stuttgart – and their most notable rivals
The only side apart from PSG who could reasonably jump from outside the top 24 into the playoff spots are probably Stuttgart, who also have seven points.
Below them it’s Shakhtar and Sparta Prague both on four, who therefore need two wins from two – and both have tough away games final round.
Thus, Stuttgart are the likeliest gatecrashers – they’ll need to win away to pointless Slovan Bratislava to stay in the running, before that last meeting with PSG.
Above them, Dinamo Zagreb and PSV will be the pair most in danger of dropping out, with Arsenal and AC Milan the remaining opponents for the Croatians and PSV hoping to beat Red Star Belgrade or Liverpool.
