Key events
Introduction: UK consumer confidence remains weak after budget as Christmas approaches
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Confidence among British consumers has remained weak as Christmas approaches.
More people worry about the state of the economy than before the autumn budget, according to the British Retail Consortium’s latest survey. A measure of consumer expectations for the next three months worsened slightly to -19 in November, from -17 in October.
At the same time, people’s expectations for their own personal financial situation improved slightly to -3 this month from -4 in October.
Personal retail spending expectations improved slightly ahead of Christmas, to +3 from +2, while personal spending overall remained at +17, and personal saving stayed at -9.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, said:
There was little shift in consumer confidence since the chancellor’s budget, with many worried about the economy in the lead up to Christmas. While there was a very slight improvement in people’s expectations of their personal financial situation, this was offset by declining expectations of the wider economy.
Personal retail spending remained positive, edging up slightly, though this was to be expected as consumers prepare for the festive season. Within this, non-food spending expectations remained low, though expectations of spending on eating out improved the most out of all categories, as people prepare for Christmas catchups with friends and relatives.
The last month clearly did little to shift the dial for households either positively or negatively, however, the same cannot be said for the retail industry. With over £7bn in additional costs in 2025 resulting from the budget, retailers will have little choice but to raise prices or reduce investment in jobs and shops. To mitigate this, government must ensure that changes to the business rates system, planned for 2026, bring about a meaningful reduction in bills for all retailers.
Last night, Aviva, the UK’s biggest insurer, revealed that it had made a £3.3bn approach to buy its smaller UK rival Direct Line – but was rejected.
Let’s see how the shares respond when markets open at 8am. We’ll monitor any developments.
The Agenda
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9am GMT: European Central Bank general council meeting
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9am GMT: Spain inflation for November (forecast: 2.4%, previous: 1.8%)
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11am GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence final for November
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2pm GMT: Germany inflation for November (forecast: 2.3%, previous: 2%)
