Voters in Ireland have expressed dissatisfaction with the taoiseach, Simon Harris, despite a return of the current government being the most probable outcome of the election, according to an exit poll.
Of those 5,000 voters surveyed after they placed their ballot, 35% named Fianna Fáil’s leader, Micheál Martin, as their preferred new leader of the 34th Dáil.
But solidifying Sinn Féin’s place in the Irish political landscape and reflecting the popularity of its current leader, 34% said they wanted Mary Lou McDonald to lead the country – far ahead of Harris, the leader of Fine Gael, who came third in the exit poll with 27%.
Although the electorate does not choose the taoiseach, the exit poll is sobering reading for the two main parties – 59% of 18 to 34-year-olds said they preferred McDonald to lead the country and 56% of 25 to 34-year-olds backed her.
With a coalition now the most likely outcome, the chance of a new government led by Sinn Féin is slim. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out forming a government with the party, the former political wing of the IRA in Northern Ireland.
Harris, 38, who called the snap election three weeks ago, went into the campaign in a leading position but a series of slip ups including an awkward encounter with a care-worker have damaged his brand.
He appears to have come out with 21% of the first preference vote, just behind Sinn Féin at 21.1% and slightly edging Fianna Fáil, which is predicted to come third with 19.5%.
“I think there was big momentum behind the idea of a left-of-centre alternative up until about a year, year and a half ago and then it faltered,” said Richard Boyd Barrett, the head of the People Before Profit collection of teachta dálas (members of parliament) who are expected to take about 3.1% of the vote.
The Fine Gael director of elections, Olwyn Enright, said the exit poll was a “positive” prediction for the party, but that she was “surprised” with the response over preferences for the taoiseach.
Jack Chambers, the departing Fianna Fáil finance minister, said the result was “too close to call”.
Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8%), Labour (5%), Greens (4%), Aontú (3.6%), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1%), and Independent Ireland (2.2%). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6%. There is a margin of error of 1.4%.
Ballot boxes were opened at 9am on Saturday with the first results of the count of first preference votes not expected until late afternoon and the count not expected to conclude before Sunday night or Monday morning.
The exit poll’s examination of voters’ second preferences put Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael at 20% each, with Sinn Féin at 17%.
The inconclusive results mean that all eyes will now turn to the potential search for coalition partners. Government formation talks could take weeks, with no new government until January possible.
With 87 seats needed for a clear majority in the 174 seat Dáil, no party will be able to form a majority government on their own since the predicted vote share is expected to translate into 30-something seats for each of the three parties.
The predicted results appear to buck the trend in Europe with incumbent parties returning and migration way down the list of priorities for voters, despite the unprecedented riots in Dublin a year ago.
The housing crisis and homelessness emerged as the number one priority among voters with 28% citing it as the biggest influence on their decision after the cost of living, the economy and health, with immigration cited by just 6%.
Unlike the UK, which operates a first-past-the-post system, Ireland has proportional representation, allowing voters to rank candidates who are then eliminated during descending vote transfer rounds.
The Green party, which props up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the incumbent government, is expected to lose some of its 12 seats on a predicted 4% of the vote with Labour slightly ahead at 5% and the Social Democrats in position to emerge as the fourth largest party at 5.8%.
Another small party, the rightwing Aontú appears to have doubled its vote and may end up with more seats than the Greens.
Its leader, Peadar Tóibín, told RTÉ they think Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, two parties that emerged from the ashes of the civil war in the 1920s, were “becoming one party in many ways” with about 60% of the electorate voting for a smattering of other parties.
The survey of about 5,000 voters who had cast their ballot during the day was carried out by Ipsos MRBI for RTÉ, the Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin. It comes with two strong health warnings – it reflects first preference votes only and carries a margin of error.
