Iran and the so-called E3 grouping of the UK, France and Germany have agreed to continue holding talks in the near future in an attempt to find a way out of an impasse over Tehran’s nuclear programme, in what may be the last chance of a breakthrough before Donald Trump takes up the US presidency again.
Trump, who pursued a policy of “maximum economic pressure” against Iran during his first term, returns to the White House on 20 January.
The decision to hold a further round of talks following a meeting in Geneva on Friday suggests the two sides believe there is still diplomatic space for an agreement whereby Iran would be more transparent about its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. But the chances of even an outline agreement before Trump returns to power seems remote.
Iran is under pressure regionally after setbacks for the forces it has supported in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
Kazem Gharibabadi, an Iranian deputy foreign minister, said there would be more talks in the near future without going into further details. His tone was markedly more restrained than before the talks, when he said the EU “should abandon its self-centred and irresponsible behaviour” on a range of issues including the war in Ukraine and the Iranian nuclear issue.
Europeans have become increasingly frustrated with Iran’s approach, including its provision of arms for Russia’s war in Ukraine and its lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Some Europeans fear that Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium reveals it is on a covert path to building a nuclear bomb.
Iran believes Europe rebuffed a clear signal of willingness to negotiate when Tehran offered to cap its uranium enrichment programme at 60% and to allow experienced IAEA nuclear inspectors back into the country.
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The aim of the Geneva meeting was to see if there was a basis for the Iranian offer to be developed, as well as to seek limits to Iranian-Russian military cooperation. In return, the EU could try to lift some economic sanctions, but the timetable is short before Trump takes power. Iran insists it has not provided any ballistic missiles to Russia, an assurance that the US does not accept.
Speaking in Paris on Friday alongside his British counterpart, Richard Moore, the French foreign intelligence chief, Nicolas Lerner, said the risk of an Iranian nuclear proliferation was expected to be the most “critical threat” in the coming months. Moore said the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions “continue to threaten all of us” despite the series of blows dealt in recent months to Tehran’s allied militias across the Middle East.
In a pre-meeting between Gharibabadi and the EU’s chief negotiator, Enrique Mora, little common ground was found, judging by the accounts of the exchanges issued by both sides.
Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, wrote on X: “Europe should not project its own problems and mistakes onto others, including with regard to the conflict in Ukraine … With regard to the nuclear issue of Iran, Europe has failed to be a serious player due to lack of self-confidence and responsibility.”
Mora issued a shorter statement on social media, saying the two sides had frank exchanges. He added: “Iran’s military support to Russia that has to stop, the nuclear issue that needs a diplomatic solution, regional tensions (important to avoid further escalation from all sides) and human rights.”
The distrust between the two sides was made evident when the E3 countries on 21 November pushed ahead with a motion ordering the nuclear inspectorate to prepare a “comprehensive” report on Iran’s nuclear activities – the stepping stone necessary for European countries next autumn to snap back the UN sanctions that were imposed on Iran before it signed the 2015 nuclear deal.
The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install about 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday. “Iran informed the agency that it intended to feed” about 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to 5%, higher than the 3.67% limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said this week that the aim of the meeting was to find out whether the EU wanted cooperation or confrontation. He said that any snapback of UN sanctions was likely to lead to a change in the debate inside Iran about its possession of nuclear weapons.
Iran has a fatwa in place opposing its possession of nuclear weapons, and the country insists its nuclear programme is only for civil purposes.
Araghchi felt frustrated that Europe did not take a clearer independent approach after Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal in 2018, undercutting reformists inside Iran who said cooperation with the west over its nuclear programme would lead to a lifting of economic sanctions.
Araghchi said Europe had done little to seek compromise since the election in the summer of the reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is committed to lifting sanctions by offering a more balanced policy between east and west.
